FOX News Reported...

[canegrl04]

That Ivan is forecast to take the same track as Frances,only alittle farther south,and that its bad news for S. Florida

[chris_fit]

Way to far out to say they should be scaring us more than we already are

[GalvestonDuck]

I think they might be referring to the track over the next 3-5 days. Not even Fox News could predict where Ivan will go on his entire path.

[southerngale]

That's what I heard them talking about duckie.

[air360]

why would they even begin to talk about Ivan like that and to already begin to scare people about where he may go a week in advance when right NOW there is a much bigger problem in FL.

[southerngale]

By "they" do you mean just Fox News or everyone else who is also talking about Ivan? It's there and it's strengthening. Ignoring it won't make it go away.

[canegrl04]

I just heard it on Fox news.The lady reporting it showed the 5 day forecast projected path from NHC,and said its like a bicicle race behind Frances,and that it will use Frances' path only aittle farther south.

[air360]

oh im just basing it all on what canegrl04 said fox news had said...so im referring to Fox. I agree that it is there and it is getting bigger...i think we ALL agree on that:)...i was just agreeing with Duck on how far out a prediction that is...to be saying Florida...for all we know it could turn northward..right into NC

[Thunder44]

Fox News doesn't know where Ivan is going. They said the same about Earl following Charley's path. It's just a bunch media hype.

[Coldfront]

I just heard it on Fox news.The lady reporting it showed the 5 day forecast projected path from NHC,and said its like a bicicle race behind Frances,and that it will use Frances' path only aittle farther south.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Ivan is following Frances' path, wouldn't that "churn" (cold water churned up by Frances) put a damper on Ivan's potential growth?

[southerngale]

Fox News doesn't know where Ivan is going. They said the same about Earl following Charley's path. It's just a bunch media hype.

You're right Thunder. They don't know. They were showing the projected path by the NHC.

[air360]

thats a really good point coldfront. at SOME point it should cross the path of Frances and go over that cold water...but the intensity forecast as of right now really doesnt seem to show any signs of anything other than steady intensification

[Coldfront]

Air,

Thanks! I suppose the NHC must have their hands full with Frances and don't have the time to concentrate on little details like churn. Guess we'll have to wait until later to see what Ivan's growth will be.

[air360]

yea i really have not seen anyone really taking a real close look at ivan yet...as in...looking at all the possibilities and stuff..like if i could turn north..or south..or whatever....it seems that they are just trying to keep everything on ivan real short and to the point right now...but then again...its pretty straight forward as far as short term track goes and is not a major threat to any land areas yet...so they probably dont feel the need to focus on him TO much right now...especially with a landfalling hurricane as we speak

[Thunder44]

thats a really good point coldfront. at SOME point it should cross the path of Frances and go over that cold water...but the intensity forecast as of right now really doesnt seem to show any signs of anything other than steady intensification

On the NHC's projected through five days, it takes it ihrough the Lesser Antiliesnto the Carribean. Frances path was further north. So the will be no colder water turned up by Frances (if that even exists) on the track.

[Cookiely]

The weather channel stated it will be 100 mph and south of Puerto Rico, I believe Steve Lyons said by Wednesday.

[air360]

yea..i guess your right...and if it DOES cross the same path..by that time the waters may have begun to warm back up and would not have that much effect on the storm i guess

[Coldfront]

thats a really good point coldfront. at SOME point it should cross the path of Frances and go over that cold water...but the intensity forecast as of right now really doesnt seem to show any signs of anything other than steady intensification

On the NHC's projected through five days, it takes it ihrough the Lesser Antiliesnto the Carribean. Frances path was further north. So the will be no colder water turned up by Frances (if that even exists) on the track.

Thunder,

Ok, thank you for the clarification. I'd assumed Ivan was following pretty much an identical path as Frances'. Looks like that was a mistaken presumption on my part.

Btw, how far (mileage) and long (timewise) is churn considered a factor?

[Sean in New Orleans]

Fox News doesn't know where Ivan is going. They said the same about Earl following Charley's path. It's just a bunch media hype.

Amen to that...but, they are honestly only reporting the projected path and it certainly could have an effect of S. Florida within a week, IMO. We could be sitting here one week from today going through these same motions.

[air360]

ok...iv got a question...what is up with all these florida canes this season...whatever happened to them coming and then turning north and hooking up the south east coast and then back out to sea....is there something different this season that is keeping them to the south or is it all just in the timing with the fronts and high pressures and stuff?