OFF THE BEACH NOW 951MB

[Derek Ortt]

cat 3 for sure now

[NateFLA]

YIKES!

That is scary for all.

[Brent]

Probably means it'll keep hurricane status until it re-emerges into the GOM. Extremely bad news.

[canegrl04]

Frances is the weirdest hurricane I have ever kept track of. Shes been so unpredictable.Makes you wonder what will she do next

[Innotech]

Ive been saying about 120 mph at landfall. Landfall is occurring within literally minutes, so whatever the next few recons say will probably confirm Cat 3. So htis might just end up to be the second major landfall in Florida in a season. This has been an AMAZING season!

[Brent]

Ive been saying about 120 mph at landfall. Landfall is occurring within literally minutes, so whatever the next few recons say will probably confirm Cat 3. So htis might just end up to be the second major landfall in Florida in a season. This has been an AMAZING season!

Landfall is still a few hours away. Center of the eye is still about 40 miles offshore and it's barely crawling right now. I expect landfall between Midnight and 5am.

[rbaker]

yes and it's going to be a prolonged event, esp for the east coast, unless it speeds up.

[ROCK]

Ive been saying about 120 mph at landfall. Landfall is occurring within literally minutes, so whatever the next few recons say will probably confirm Cat 3. So htis might just end up to be the second major landfall in Florida in a season. This has been an AMAZING season!

Landfall is still a few hours away. Center of the eye is still about 40 miles offshore and it's barely crawling right now. I expect landfall between Midnight and 5am.

TWC Lyons said shes moving at west at 3mph...early morning for sure

[Innotech]

Ive been saying about 120 mph at landfall. Landfall is occurring within literally minutes, so whatever the next few recons say will probably confirm Cat 3. So htis might just end up to be the second major landfall in Florida in a season. This has been an AMAZING season!

Landfall is still a few hours away. Center of the eye is still about 40 miles offshore and it's barely crawling right now. I expect landfall between Midnight and 5am.

TWC Lyons said shes moving at west at 3mph...early morning for sure

Perhaps Im not understanding when Landfall is. I was understanding hte arrival of first eyewall edge, but is it the center?

[SouthernWx]

Yeah Derek, and those recon vortex fixes were less than two hours apart....

959 mb at 4:41 p.m. (2041z)
951 mb at 6:24 p.m. (2224z)

Extrapolate that to the coast in 4-5 hours, and we may yet see a strong cat-4/ borderline cat-5 cane at landfall...I've warned folks what the Gulf Stream offshore the SE Florida coast was capable of. We didn't have satellite, radar, or recon in 1926 and 1928 (and only spotty recon in 1947)....for all we know, those hurricanes may have weakened over the Bahamas just as Frances did, only to deepen again before landfall.

[Brent]

It's the center of the eye.

NHC still has her 50 miles offshore. If she continues to move at 3-5 mph, she won't make landfall until shortly after daybreak. Ugh...

[debbiet]

Question...looking at the IR satellite right now, the convection at bottom of the eye looks ragged and open rather than wrapped around like it had been...could that be why NHC didn't upgrade the storm at 8 pm?

[Innotech]

It's the center of the eye.

NHC still has her 50 miles offshore. If she continues to move at 3-5 mph, she won't make landfall until shortly after daybreak. Ugh...

I never realized it took so dmaned long!
The horrible hting is this wind and heavy rain will last 3 timesl onger over land than the usual hurricane. The good news is winds SHOULD die down quickly inland, as hte storm will spin itself to death over land from remaining stationary so long. More bad news is htis will dump huge amounts of water on land, loosening more trees, causing more flooding, destroying more buildings. STAY SAFE aND DO NOT VENTURE OUT!!!

[Innotech]

Question...looking at the IR satellite right now, the convection at bottom of the eye looks ragged and open rather than wrapped around like it had been...could that be why NHC didn't upgrade the storm at 8 pm?

land interaction/dry air entrainment?

[wxman57]

Recon says 100kts fl = 90 kts sfc still. Winds won't have much time to respond as eyewall is moving ashore now. Looks like Cat 2 at landfall.

[obxhurricane]

Yeah...not much chance at strenghtening before landfall. A good chunck of the circulation is over land now. Also...not sure how it will still be a hurricane once it reaches the gulf...it will be over land much longer than Charley was....

[wxman57]

Typically, a hurricane will lose half its wind speed the first 12 hours ashore. Frances will be over land nearly 24hrs, so I expect 40-50 mph when it emerges. But it is pretty big, so it might hang in there a bit more.

[Ixolib]

Typically, a hurricane will lose half its wind speed the first 12 hours ashore. Frances will be over land nearly 24hrs, so I expect 40-50 mph when it emerges. But it is pretty big, so it might hang in there a bit more.

WX - Considering what lies ahead, where do you think it will enter the Gulf? Or, are there conditions in place that will recurve this storm before it reaches the GOM?

[Brent]

The NHC doesn't weaken it quite that much. Down to 60 kt just east of Tampa tomorrow afternoon and then over the NE Gulf at 60 kt Early Monday Morning.

[Bammer89]

Do not want to underestimate the storm or its future prospects. But we live 2 blocks from the beach in Fort Lauderdale, Lost cable just recently. Still have power. While winds have been strong at times we have no rela damage other than landscaping debris and some minor tree limb loss. Hope it stays the same but the experience is far different from what the mets are running around to project.