8pm Frances-Still 105 mph winds

Hyperstorm · #21 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:10 pm

Remember, this reading was taken nearly 2 hours ago. The winds should already be close to category 3 strength in the storm. If we get another reconnaissance in the hurricane before the 11pm advisory, they'll likely find winds of major hurricane force.

The only fly in the ointment might be the lack of relatively strong convection around the center which might prevent the strongest winds from reaching the surface. This is the reason why I was surprised to see the pressure drop. There wasn't really major convection around the storm...

Regardless of categories, this is a MAJOR storm...

#22 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:11 pm

They are now reporting pressure of 960 w/ the same flight level winds as the last recon. This is crazy, they must not be sampling the same area that had a pressure of 951. Something's fishy.

dennis1x1 · #23 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:14 pm

i doubt they missed the center.......they are pretty good at this....id be more inclined to believe the 951 was an anomaly considering we had 962-959-951-960.....which one doesnt fit?

flight level winds still consistent at 95-100kts.....translating to about 105 at the surface...

this coupled with the lack of cold cloudtops makes things look like status quo to me...

kevin · #24 Postby **kevin** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:17 pm

Crazy how it dropped to 951... and rose so quickly... absolutely crazy. ughhh

#25 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:18 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:They are now reporting pressure of 960 w/ the same flight level winds as the last recon. This is crazy, they must not be sampling the same area that had a pressure of 951. Something's fishy.

Lawrence, in the 8pm #44 Advisory has reported 951mb
One of my local mets reported the 951mb
the earlier advisories 5pm still have 962mb, no update until 11pm.

#26 Postby **Cookiely** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:22 pm

canegrl04 wrote:I guess they don't want to frighten the folks of Florida too much

My mother is frightened and she doesn't want to know anything about the storm. She says at this point we can't do anything but sit it out and hope for the best. "Talking about it makes it worse." I can see where it would just increase the anxiety level to know it has jumped from cat 2 to strong cat 3 for those living where its coming ashore.

#27 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:30 pm

OK I'm completely confused. Is her pressure 951, 957, 960, or 962?

birdwomn · #28 Postby **birdwomn** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:37 pm

I heard in the chat room that it was announced on CNN that the 951 pressure was an error...they have adjusted the 8pm to 957 and they also said that it could go to cat 3, but it is back up to 960 now...hmmm

This storm is getting long for all of us, I think. :roll:

8pm Frances-Still 105 mph winds

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