i was shocked and depressed at how wrong i was....i shouldnt have doubted myself!!
by all observations available to me the storm hasnt strengthened in the last 24 hours and im glad to see the advisories agree
NEW VORTEX: 2348Z 960mb
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No it wasn't. The dropsonde or onboard meter is very precise. If it recorded a 951 it hit a 951.
Did anyone ever stop to consider this hard data reflects the smaller eye they saw trying to form before? The explanation is simple. Since dropsonde pressure errors aren't possible, the device managed to land in the center of the small eye that is presently being boosted by the Gulf Stream. Since this eye is small it can't drag the rest of the storm up to its depth. The large eyewall is the core-wall. If the smaller eye gets strong enough over the Gulf Stream it will be powerful enough to finally "grab" the rest of the storm and pull it around.
If this happens that large eye will collapse into the small one and intensification will follow. If this small, more powerful Gulf Stream-enhanced eye is still spinning around within the bigger one at landfall someone could experience a burst of much higher winds...
This western movement could be a drift west. Frances could still resist going inland...
Did anyone ever stop to consider this hard data reflects the smaller eye they saw trying to form before? The explanation is simple. Since dropsonde pressure errors aren't possible, the device managed to land in the center of the small eye that is presently being boosted by the Gulf Stream. Since this eye is small it can't drag the rest of the storm up to its depth. The large eyewall is the core-wall. If the smaller eye gets strong enough over the Gulf Stream it will be powerful enough to finally "grab" the rest of the storm and pull it around.
If this happens that large eye will collapse into the small one and intensification will follow. If this small, more powerful Gulf Stream-enhanced eye is still spinning around within the bigger one at landfall someone could experience a burst of much higher winds...
This western movement could be a drift west. Frances could still resist going inland...
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dennis1x1
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TheShrimper
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dennis1x1
Personally...I definitely don't doubt the dropsonde...but I could appreciate someone's finger on a keyboard or a misreading of data...957 and 951 would be an easy enough typo...and IF someone were reading a digital screen (don't know if that's the case with a dropsonde) 957 and 951 could look an awful lot alike.
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NorthGaWeather
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caneman
dennis1x1 wrote:so it rapidly intensified, then rapidly weakened all the while looking the same on satellite AND THEN the NHC lied about this historic event to cover it up from the public.
Mulder?
Umm, lets see weren't you the guy earlier who said it was falling apart earlier when it in fact was holding its own? They did get a a 957 reading. Hardly weakening and hardly status quo.
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dennis1x1
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