Ivan's track

[Windfall]

I heard a local meteorologist say that Ivan could be steered away from Florida by i guess a cold front. I think that is way too early to call and according to projected models, ivan doesn't seem to be picked up north. Any comments?

[ericinmia]

Edited:
All the long range models predict there to be NO front's across anywhere in the USA except mabye on the far west coast by the time that Ivan makes it to the bahamas. There is going to be a HUGE ridge bridging from the central USA, across to bermuda, and down to south fla. This high pressure ridge is also predicted to be MANY times stronger than the one that pushed Frances.

This is really far out, but i wouldn't be surprised to see Ivan make it to the south-western bahamas within 7-8 days. From there, its going to be either the south fla, or the keys south to cuba...




-Eric

[Windfall]

Thanks a lot Eric. I like your opinions because you back them up with reasoning unlike other people who emphaise their "gut" feeling. I am going to sleep soon. bye

[ericinmia]

Thanks,

Sorry i had just responded in another post to someone on the same subject... that is why the point of vue was a little off...
Now i feel a little stupid for just copying it from the other thread.
-Eric

[air360]

ok so the guy feeling thing was more of a joke than anything...trying to predict something this far out is near impossible....

[ericinmia]

ok so the guy feeling thing was more of a joke than anything...trying to predict something this far out is near impossible....

Not exactly... basing your opinion off of one model and getting it correct is near to impossible, however with Frances we learned that some models had her pegged to within 50-100 miles over 5-7 days out... Which Ivan is about right now.

No long range is semi in the past, and is a general rule; however, using actual meterology and synoptic judgement one can ascertain the general area the storm should be in.
-Eric

[ROCK]

Edited:
All the long range models predict there to be NO front's across anywhere in the USA except mabye on the far west coast by the time that Ivan makes it to the bahamas. There is going to be a HUGE ridge bridging from the central USA, across to bermuda, and down to south fla. This high pressure ridge is also predicted to be MANY times stronger than the one that pushed Frances.

This is really far out, but i wouldn't be surprised to see Ivan make it to the south-western bahamas within 7-8 days. From there, its going to be either the south fla, or the keys south to cuba...




-Eric

to far out even the NOGAPS to predict. If "it" takes a more southern track through the carib. This will be a GOM event not FL or the Bahamas. We are 3+ days away from seeing any WNW or NW track...