Ivan 5 Day Forecast Track Not Good News For..

[canegrl04]

Florida The NHC's latest 5 day track takes Ivan over DR and headed in general direction of S. Florida

[B-Bear]

Having Ivan track directly across Hispaniola, as NHC currently has it forecast to do, would probably be the best news for Florida. I can't recall a single hurricane ever making a direct hit on Hispaniola and surviving--at least as a significant threat thereafter.

[Windfall]

Hurricane Georges followed a similar track and intensified after hitting the D.R. AND part of Cuba.

[B-Bear]

Hurricane Georges followed a similar track and intensified after hitting the D.R. AND part of Cuba.

Not exactly. Hurricane Georges was a major cat 3 hurricane before it hit Hispaniola, with a pressure of 962 and sustained winds of 120 mph. After tracking across Hispaniola, however, it never again became a major hurricane, despite the fact that it tracked all the way to New Orleans through the GOM. Now I'm not saying that it CAN'T happen. With the right conditions in place, it doesn't take a heck of a long distance for a hurricane to become a monster, i.e. Camille. But, in the absence of nearly PERFECT conditions for restrengthening, it is highly unlikely that any hurricane is going to be able to make a direct hit on Hispaniola and regain its former splendor before making landfall in Florida.

[btsgmdad]

They have it still being a hurricane on the other side. The only way I see that happening is 1) He's haulin butt towards a trough in which case he "should go" out to sea or 2) He's a Cat 4 or 5 when he hits Hispanola. It will be interesting to watch the Russian's journey across the ocean.

[B-Bear]

Yes, they do still have him forecast to be a hurricane. But just barely. So can he become a MAJOR hurricane again before making landfall in Florida? Perhaps. But it's not likely. The conditions would have to be nearly perfect. Hell, Frances was just about the perfect storm until she got to the Bahamas, and we all saw what can happen to even the perfect storm with a combination of rather minor disturbances all converging at the same time. Can you imagine if that had happened to a cat 1 or 2 hurricane? It would probably have been little more than a puff of clouds by the time it made landfall.