Jut to let folks know we're OK. We were exceeding lucky to keep power most of the night even though we had several surges (just ask anyone in the virtual studio last night...had to give up trying to reconnect).
Many people I work with are in Palm Beach County an I cannot get hold of them right now. I am working on it and will get some reports back from them as soon as I can.
My thoughts are with my friends to the north...especially up in Melbourne and Vero...Port St Lucie and the central east Fl coast. Although this may not have been a major hurriane...the size and long duration of hurricane force winds will have caused some significant damage. Since the weather is still bad there...reports are going to be slow to come in.
We have some fairly bad tree damage in my area...many small trees and medium size branches down...a couple are on cars...apparently there are some bigger trees down up the block but I havent checked...me and my youngest have a pretty good cold today.
Most of the medium/long range guidance suggests that Ivan is going to move very quickly accross the Atlantic unlike his big sister. It is already at 45W and moving w at 18 knots. The Euro model from last night/this morning tracks a weaker vortex north of Eastern Cuba in 7 days...and the most likely track will take Ivan near or over the DR. Let's just say that the GFS does not seem to be handling the remnants of Frances well and appears to be over-weakening the Atlantic ridge. If the storm decides to stay just south of the DR and come up through Cuba...well...I suppose it's not best to speculate on that yet but by tomorrow I'll be on Ivan duty full time. Looks like I may not be working my day job for some time...we'll see. Of course...some of my time over the coming days will be spent helping out folks to the north.
I like the TPC track for Frances...with one caveat. Morning radar shows the core of the hurricane still moving much more north than west and should this trend continue...Frances may not make it out over the Gulf. If it does...restrengthening into a hurricane seems unlikely.
I am going to sleep for most of the day....perhaps I'll be around tonight.
Good luck...and let's hope for good news from our neighbors to the north.
MW
We're OK...Central FL...Ivan...and Sleep
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We're OK...Central FL...Ivan...and Sleep
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