Ivan forecast #6... 110-115KT for islands
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Derek, do you really think that Ivan's eye will pass to the south of Barbados?
Judging by the general lack of information being disseminated locally, our mets seem to think that it will bypass us well to our north. I don't share their opinion, however.
I fear that by the time people here realise that we have a serious situation on our hands, there'll be a mad rush to hardware stores and supermarkets tomorrow!
Judging by the general lack of information being disseminated locally, our mets seem to think that it will bypass us well to our north. I don't share their opinion, however.
I fear that by the time people here realise that we have a serious situation on our hands, there'll be a mad rush to hardware stores and supermarkets tomorrow!
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Derek Ortt
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Brent
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x-y-no wrote:I had this notion that storms would have a hard time intensifying south of 10N.
Guess Ivan is disproving that one ...
A lot of systems that far south crash into or go close enough to South America where their inflow is cut off, but this one will have a northward component of motion.
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x-y-no
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Brent wrote:x-y-no wrote:I had this notion that storms would have a hard time intensifying south of 10N.
Guess Ivan is disproving that one ...
A lot of systems that far south crash into or go close enough to South America where their inflow is cut off, but this one will have a northward component of motion.
Yes I understand that, but I was thinking in more general terms about the relative weakness of the coriolis effect that far south, and how that affects the ability of systems to spin up. But Ivan was all the way down a 9N when he became a TS, and has intensified into a hurricane while still south of 10N. That's what I found a bit surprising.
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Derek Ortt
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x-y-no
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Stormsfury wrote:What's even more amazing is the FWD movement of 20+ MPH ... in which, the GFS has seemingly produced an unreal depiction of opening Ivan back into a wave as it crashes in South America ...
SF
Yeah - the GFS is goofy yet again ... no way he doesn't hold together.
The 0Z UKMET and NOGAPS are in very close agreement with each other - crossing the islands at about 13N.
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