...looking at the latest WV imagery.
Huge high pressure building in to the north.
She may end up all the way over in Texas before it's over.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv
No way can I see Frances bending back to the NW....
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Opal storm
But this storm has done nothing that the NHC said it would do.They still want this thing to turn NW and hit the big bend area but I don't see that happening.I say MS/AL/West FL panhandle need to keep a eye on the track.
Re: No way can I see Frances bending back to the NW....
Big EZ wrote:...looking at the latest WV imagery.
Huge high pressure building in to the north.
She may end up all the way over in Texas before it's over.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv
EZ - Any idea why the NHC isn't seeing that - or the models? I'm wondering if the models have a hard time dealing with a hurricane over land??? Wonder what "convential" forcasters have to say...
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BayouVenteux
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Ascension Parish, Louisiana (30.3 N 91.0 W)
According to our local (New Orleans/Baton Rouge NWS) AFD...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 5 2004
.DISCUSSION...FRANCES INLAND THIS MORNING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLA.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST IN
RESPONSE TO LARGE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.AS A RESULT...A LONG DEEP FETCH IS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. THIS FETCH IS AS FAR EAST AS NEW ORLEANS. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE GULF IS FROM THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF...FROM THE SE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN NORTH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THIS IS SHOWN AS THE LARGE MEAN FLOW THAT GRADUALLY TURNS FRANCES MORE NORTHERLY TODAY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 5 2004
.DISCUSSION...FRANCES INLAND THIS MORNING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLA.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST IN
RESPONSE TO LARGE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.AS A RESULT...A LONG DEEP FETCH IS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. THIS FETCH IS AS FAR EAST AS NEW ORLEANS. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE GULF IS FROM THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF...FROM THE SE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN NORTH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THIS IS SHOWN AS THE LARGE MEAN FLOW THAT GRADUALLY TURNS FRANCES MORE NORTHERLY TODAY.
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Portastorm
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If I may, speaking of behalf of my fellow Texans ... no thanks ... you can keep Frances over there. I don't think we want any part of that storm, especially the part that brings Geraldo Rivera!!
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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SwampDawg
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 174
- Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2004 8:16 pm
- Location: Morgan City, Louisiana
Re: No way can I see Frances bending back to the NW....
Ixolib wrote:Big EZ wrote:...looking at the latest WV imagery.
Huge high pressure building in to the north.
She may end up all the way over in Texas before it's over.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv
EZ - Any idea why the NHC isn't seeing that - or the models? I'm wondering if the models have a hard time dealing with a hurricane over land??? Wonder what "convential" forcasters have to say...
It almost looks like the models have trouble dealing with weather....
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otowntiger
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
She's doing it now moving more nw than west that is for sure
The local met Glenn Richards (Fox) just said that he is concerned we here in Orlando may get stronger winds than they were thinking earlier today, at least lasting longer.
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Anonymous
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Opal storm
bayfred wrote:I hope that the forecast paths are right because there is no feeling of concern that I can discern at all here in the Mobile area.
Here in Pensacola it looks like the local mets could care less about Frances.WEAR-TV3 had a forecast for Mon-Tue just showing scattered afternoon showers,no heavy rain or wind.While TWC and NWS continue to show very rough weather for us early next week.This causes a lot of confusion.
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