Which model was most accurate? Lesson for Ivan?

[guanaskip]

For the pros out there, is there a way to go back and figure from North of puerto rico to Fl landfall which model or models was/were most accurate.

1--If so, which one(s)?

2--Does that mean anything re predicting Ivan's path, that is, should the more accurate ones with Frances be given more weight with Ivan since both storms are originating in the same general area.

Thanks

[B-Bear]

Hopefully, a professional met will answer your question. But I'll throw my 2 cents in for you.

I doubt that more credence will be given to any particular model for Ivan's track, based solely upon the accuracy of that model in predicting Frances' path. It will take quite a bit of analysis, and therefore time, to determine why some models might have been more accurate than others with regard to Frances' track. For all anyone knows at this point the accuracy of some of the models could have been a fluke, so it would be potentially dangerous to give them more weight with regard to Ivan's track without the necessary in-depth analysis regarding why they were more accurate.

Derek Ortt does a very good job of explaining which models he is trusting, which models he isn't, and why. Look for that kind of information in the short term, as it will better enable you to understand the strengths and weaknesses of various models.

[guanaskip]

Thanks. Maybe Derek can give us his ideas or Air Force Met, etc.

[guanaskip]

11am shows GDFL, NHC and UKMET all with patterns that with slight right bend put it right over where Frances has just trod. That's nightmare we dont need.