Questions to storm2k mets

[JTD]

Thanks for all your hard work on Frances (especially Stormsfury, Mike, Windspeed, ALHurricane, Derek, etc.etc.etc). The work has just been terrific.

Now, I am going to put you out on a limb again, unfortunately:

1) At this point, do you think Ivan is likely to be a fish storm for CONUS? or not? What the odds, again, at this point.

2) Are there any strong ridges or troughs visualized in the model runs that show any of these climatological features?

[Stormsfury]

I'll go ahead and answer ...

... Ivan is unprecedented ... NO hurricane this intense has ever developed so far south ... and current heading WEST at 21 MPH keeps this TC moving right along and has a better chance of getting into the Caribbean Sea and staying FAR south ...

Two wildcards later in the period include Frances leftovers leaving a trough behind in its wake, and a massive W Coast Trough that bumps up late in the MR ... which COULD have bearings late with the possibility of a GOM potential in about 10 days or so ... all speculation at this point ...

But at this time, I don't think the EC will have to deal with Ivan ... GOM might be a different story ...

SF

[JTD]

Thanks stormsfury.

So, could we be looking at a similar path to Charley, then? except a farther east into GOM path?

[Stormsfury]

Thanks stormsfury.

So, could we be looking at a similar path to Charley, then? except a farther east into GOM path?

Too early for exact details ... probably more of a W GOM threat ... IF the massive trough in the W States pans out, in response a massive ridge will bump up out east, keeping Ivan moving W or WNW for a prolonged period until it feels that W trough ...

Also, watch what Ivan does in response to the trough that is expected to take shape in the wake of Frances departure ...

One other thing is a large TUTT- type feature that is currently in the E Caribbean Sea (carved out in the wake of France's Outflow) ... and Ivan is outracing that feature and may catch up to it if he doesn't slow down fairly soon ...

And it looks as Frances is developing an eye over LAND ... on the last frame ...geez
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[wxman57]

Looking at past tendencies, the models have performed very poorly with previous storms in the lower tropics. Without exception, the storms have moved more quickly and tracked farther south of model guidance (true so far with Ivan). That, combined with the intensity of Ivan makes me think it could definitely be a GOM threat in about 7-8 days.

[JTD]

What will the TUTT's result be if it does outrace it? This is a low level center right and it's also shears the storm, right? Will this lead to a more northerly path or a westerly one?

BTW

2004=YEAR OF MONSTER HURRICANES:

[x-y-no]

Not a pro met, but I have some thoughts ...

My first instinct is this is a GOM storm. But my difficulty lies in the fact that the ridge as the GFS has it is not real strong for the whole period he traverses the Carribean. If that verifies, then I think the NOGAPS track is pretty likely. But OTOH, the GFS seems to consistently underestimate the Atlantic ridge. It's on that basis that I think the track may be more southerly.

[MBryant]

Is the cyclonic activity just off the Puerto Rican SE coast an upper level or lower level low? How would each affect Ivan? Is this the same type of feature that was in the Northeast GOM as frances was approaching Florida?

[x-y-no]

Is the cyclonic activity just off the Puerto Rican SE coast an upper level or lower level low? How would each affect Ivan? Is this the same type of feature that was in the Northeast GOM as frances was approaching Florida?

That's an ULL. Forecast to back away a bit over the next two days... could push Ivan a little northward as he catches up to it.