Is this a slight change in Ivan's track?

[Windfall]

I don't know why some of you are still insistent that Ivan is targeting the Gulf of Mexico. Its looking more and more like a Cuba/Andros Island threat.
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/09LFRCSTER.html

By the way, can any of you send me a link for all the projected models?HurricaneAlley is charging me money.

[ericinmia]

That is the same official NHC track from all along... the GOM talk is simply peoples opinion and guess.
-Eric

[x-y-no]

"Insistent"?? Who is that?

It hardly seems like we've been talking about Ivan long enough for anyone to have developed a track record which fits that term.

Regarding model links, I look a the GFS runs as they come out here:

0Z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/
6Z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/
12Z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/
18Z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/

if you go up one directory level on each of those, there are some pages with loops, etc.

Also, if you move up to the "analysis" directory, you'll see some options for other views.

Another page which is nice for just seeing storm tracks is:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/
They typically have the tracks plotted fairly shortly after each run finishes, and there's a nice multi-model plot that shows the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS and ETA together.

You can find the Euro runs at http://www.ecmwf.int/

[Yankeegirl]

The link that I use alot is http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

Its not as pretty as Hurricane Alley, but its free! I also go to
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Alot as well... Just to compare...

Another one is http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

That one is good too... Hope that helps ya!!

~Lisa

[Derek Ortt]

the GOM is just an opinion?

Wonder why the model consensus keeps switching to the left? Besides, if it was "just an opinion", I wouldnt be telling everyone whom I know that this is a GOM storm and that Mia only needs to watch the storm, but not panick at the present time (though to be safe, keep the shutters on)

[Huckster]

I don't know why some of you are still insistent that Ivan is targeting the Gulf of Mexico. Its looking more and more like a Cuba/Andros Island threat.
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/09LFRCSTER.html

By the way, can any of you send me a link for all the projected models?HurricaneAlley is charging me money.

Well, I think there may be several reasons. For one, this thing is so far south, a record actually. That would tend to favor a track farther west than had this thing formed at 12.0 and 30.0. Of course, that alone doesn't guarantee anything. I haven't really looked to see what kinda weather pattern is shaping up across the west Atlantic and U.S. next week.

Also, if you will notice, there's been a trend already set with Ivan, and that is, the latter part of the forecast track (4-5 days out) keeps moving west. Early on, it looked like Puerto Rico maybe. Then Hispaniola. Now clipping the western edge of Hispaniola and then into eastern Cuba. At some point the trend to the west will stop, but I think the fear or feeling is that once the track stops getting shifted west, it will basically be pointing at the Gulf.

Last reason is probably the least scientific. The majority of the Gulf has been 'cane free this year. Therefore a storm must come at some point to change all that. Florida and the Carolinas have already been hit numerous times. Now it's the Gulf's turn. Of course there is no solid evidence behind that, but I imagine that's how a lot of people feel. I don't think anyone is necessarily wishing that this happens, they just think the luck will run out. Just my opinion.

[Anonymous]

A local met in New Orleans stated last night, that the long range models have Ivan in the GOM next weekend. That is all that is being said. Whether it ends up there or not, is another story. Don't get your panties in a wad.

[Cookiely]

This was recently posted.
From Steve Lyons on the Weather channel:
That the cone of projected path for Ivan is so narrow because they are pretty certain where Ivan will be going.Also said US will get Ivan.Maybe Florida.