Ivan Updates/Back on the Rickenbacker!

[Derek Ortt]

I will be able to do a much better job now that the Rickenbacker is open once again

Ivan updates are at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004.html

[msbee]

thanks once again Derek

[Derek Ortt]

Since I'm back at my office and not using my dial-up connected laptop now, I will have special forecasts on both storms at 5 P.M. and TRACK GRAPHICS RETURN!!

[B-Bear]

Derek,

You said something earlier about a more southerly track than what the NHC was suggesting. Do you think he might get into the Carribean, or do you think he will go over Cuba? And if he can get past Hispaniola before going over Cuba, would that better enable him to retain his strength while going over the island?

[Derek Ortt]

all forecasts have this going into the Caribbean and the latest trends are for this to keep moving more westerly. An allen type track through the carib is not inconceivable (except that it enters the carib at david's intensity

[LaBreeze]

A local met stated that he believes that Ivan will get as far west as the Keys and then will be pulled northward or northeastward. I know that it's way too early to tell, but does this sort of prediction hold true in any form? He doesn't think that it will make it into the GOM. Thoughts anyone?

[Huckster]

A local met stated that he believes that Ivan will get as far west as the Keys and then will be pulled northward or northeastward. I know that it's way too early to tell, but does this sort of prediction hold true in any form? He doesn't think that it will make it into the GOM. Thoughts anyone?

I don't watch local mets very often. Seems to me they make too many groundless statements about things too far into the future. I am not saying that all of them are like that. It's just my perception that there are many like that. Also I wonder how many times things that local mets have said about Frances, which were also posted on here, were wrong. Again, just my perception, but it seems like it happened a good bit. Always "so and so JUST SAID..." Anyway, not trying to be critical of your post BTW, where in LA are you from? I'm in Baton Rouge. Jay Grimes is one of the TV mets here, and if I remember correctly, he was or is the state climatologist. So, I do tend to listen to him more attentively than I would the "other" channel.

[Derek Ortt]

I know that many OCM's said Frances also would not make it into the GOM (even though that was obvious since last Tuesday that it would)

[LaBreeze]

Huckster, I'm located in Vermilion Parish near the coast (Lili came right over me). I've been around quite some time and have experienced a number of hurricanes and storms going as far back as Hurricane Audrey in 1957, a Cat 4. I tend to not believe most of the local mets either with long range forecasts, except that Rob Perillo on Channel 3 in Lafayette, is usually right on and fairly optimistic. I was just wondering if there was a word out there about something that might play a role in the steering of Ivan.