Steve Lyon's comments on Frances

[Stormcenter]

Steve Lyons just said that Frances will come off the coast of Tampa Bay very soon and probably still be a hurricane!

Look out AL & Florida (panhandle) again!

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[Opal storm]

Mobile and Pensacola will miss it,might even see some sunshine tomorrow.The Big Bend area will see the worst of it.

[chrisnnavarre]

Depends on the track she takes as she leaves the west coast of Florida...
Right now it looks to be more westerly, hence the fact that she is exiting sooner north of Tampa. One thing is for sure if she tracks initially westward the longer she's going to be over the warm Gulf of Mexico. I'm not letting my guard down here in Navarre Beach. This is a BIG storm and has the potential to regenerate. I wish she would have become less organized over Florida but it doesn't appear that this has happened.

[CaluWxBill]

hmm that depends on whether it is still even a hurricane, but 5pm if it isn't offshore it will be a tropical storm.

[CaluWxBill]

Although looking at radar it almost looks like it is getting better organized as the feeder bands develop in the gulf.

[MGC]

Looks like Frances will be in the GOM tonight. Panhandle look out....MGC

[Opal storm]

I think the NHC has the rest of Frances' track nailed.Cities like Mobile,P'cola,FWB,Destin,just rain with SOME wind(15-20mph).Cities east of Destin is where I would expect the tropical storm force winds and flooding.

[Stormcenter]

I think the NHC has the rest of Frances' track nailed.Cities like Mobile,P'cola,FWB,Destin,just rain with SOME wind(15-20mph).Cities east of Destin is where I would expect the tropical storm force winds and flooding.

Nailed with what?

I'm not sure they nailed anything but as to what state it would hit . They didn't predict her substantial weakening (thank GOD) before striking Florida and sure looks like they will be wrong as where she will come off the coast of Florida. Just my opinion.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Well I'm tell you this ladies and gentlemen, if this tracks over tamps, then offshore heading due west, it could strengthen a bit more than just a 75 mph hurricane at landfall over the panhandle. Just look at what has occurred along the east coast of Florida and figure this scene could be repeated if not worse along the Florida Panhandle given that coastal section is more shallow. The big bend area is a huge concern spot for a possible surge of 4-8 feet. Anything above 4 feet, and you'll be flooded on the coast by the surge.

So those mandatory evacs in the Florida Panhandle are very neccessary. Better now than later.

Jim

[sunflowerkist]

Well I'm tell you this ladies and gentlemen, if this tracks over tamps, then offshore heading due west, it could strengthen a bit more than just a 75 mph hurricane at landfall over the panhandle. Just look at what has occurred along the east coast of Florida and figure this scene could be repeated if not worse along the Florida Panhandle given that coastal section is more shallow. The big bend area is a huge concern spot for a possible surge of 4-8 feet. Anything above 4 feet, and you'll be flooded on the coast by the surge.

So those mandatory evacs in the Florida Panhandle are very neccessary. Better now than later.

Jim

Frances is a large storm and for any coast line that is subject to flooding and tidal surge she is a mess because she is a wet storm, but, she is not nearly as intense as Charlie was and that is a life saving grace.