Frances forecast.. landfall near apalachicola 65KT

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


Graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

[kevin]

umm derek?? might want to change this from the graphics link....

No not use the linear interpolation to think that the storm is weakening before landfall. 130KT remains the landfall intensity

>>editing is fun, sorry for any confusion<<

[Derek Ortt]

Just did (can tell I havnt made a graphic in quite a few days thanks to that lovely evac

[Stormcenter]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


Graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

VERY GOOD post Derek.

What's your early feeling about Ivan? I have a BAD feeling
this may not weaken as Frances did before she makes
her first US landfall. I hope I'm wrong.

[B-Bear]

I am wondering about that myself, Stormcenter. It looks like the major obstacle he has to overcome right now is the mountains of Hispaniola and southeast Cuba. Hispaniola has some 10,000 ft. peaks and southeast Cuba has some 6,000 ft. peaks. If he tracks across Hispaniola that ought to tear him up pretty good, but I'm not so sure that the mountains of Cuba would do as good of a job on him. Seems to me that he has to get around those mountains in order to maintain intensity, but I'd like to hear Derek's take on it.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Very good job Derek....you always make excellent detailed forecasts.

[sunflowerkist]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


Graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

What would keep Frances from spinning of the gulf coast and being kicked back into the peninsula sort of like a Yo-Yo effect? She will have put out a inflow and then be crossing over won't she?

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing in the steering flow to cause this to hit the peninsula again. The outflow doe snot affect the motion. This is panhandle or farther west