TWC & NHC

[Opal storm]

TWC continues to forecast T.S conditions for Pensacola on Mon and Tue,so where are the warnings and watches?Is it possible that the NHC can issue warnings/watches this late in the game,or is TWC just wrong again like always.

[BayouVenteux]

WIth a hurricane warning already up westward to Destin, Pensacola may see a TS watch go up in the 5pm advisory.

[dwinpcola]

been looking at the maps , what is making the storm turn more towards the big bend... that would be a more north/northwest track instead of west north west. I know a front is coming but it's further off , any input


dw

I am near pensacola and I am just curious

[dwinpcola]

5pm no warnings of any type for the pensacola area

[dwinpcola]

ok , at this time I feel as if storm will go more west than expected and I feel the wind will be over 85mph.

thoughts ?

dw

[BayouVenteux]

5pm no warnings of any type for the pensacola area

Hmmm...go figure. If I recall correctly, back in the 80's during the days of Sheets, Frank, etc. they would typically bracket a warning area...especially the forward side, meaning the side adjacent to the warned area, but still in the direction a storm was forecast to move in, with a watch area. I've noticed this practice seems to have changed in the last decade or so. Perhaps it's due to more accurate forecasting? Don't know. I always thought that they did it in due consideration of public safety, to insure that if a sudden change in the track occured, they have already given residents in the watch area a heads up, so to speak.

A lack of a posted watch for extreme NW Florida seems odd to me in this case, especially in light of the size of Frances' circulation.

[Alacane]

It seems to me that at 5pm, the NHC would have at least issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the remainder of the Northwest Florida coast and the Alabama coast. The storms track has a closest point of approach of 100 miles from Pensacola and 146 miles from Pascagoula. The Forecast/Advisory shows tropical storm force winds extending out up to 125 miles northwest and 200 miles southwest of the center. Any thoughts?

[MBryant]

5pm no warnings of any type for the pensacola area

Hmmm...go figure. If I recall correctly, back in the 80's during the days of Sheets, Frank, etc. they would typically bracket a warning area...especially the forward side, meaning the side adjacent to the warned area, but still in the direction a storm was forecast to move in, with a watch area. I've noticed this practice seems to have changed in the last decade or so. Perhaps it's due to more accurate forecasting? Don't know. I always thought that they did it in due consideration of public safety, to insure that if a sudden change in the track occured, they have already given residents in the watch area a heads up, so to speak.

A lack of a posted watch for extreme NW Florida seems odd to me in this case, especially in light of the size of Frances' circulation.

Ditto

[Opal storm]

5pm no warnings of any type for the pensacola area

Hmmm...go figure. If I recall correctly, back in the 80's during the days of Sheets, Frank, etc. they would typically bracket a warning area...especially the forward side, meaning the side adjacent to the warned area, but still in the direction a storm was forecast to move in, with a watch area. I've noticed this practice seems to have changed in the last decade or so. Perhaps it's due to more accurate forecasting? Don't know. I always thought that they did it in due consideration of public safety, to insure that if a sudden change in the track occured, they have already given residents in the watch area a heads up, so to speak.

A lack of a posted watch for extreme NW Florida seems odd to me in this case, especially in light of the size of Frances' circulation.

I just don't get it,when weak old Bonnie made landfall a couple of weeks ago in Panama City,they had P'cola under a T.S warning and hurricane watch,even though we didn't get anything.Now a hurricane is coming into the area and there is nothing from the NHC

[chrisnnavarre]

The storm sure looks like it's travelling west to me...more west than north. If she continues west after entering the Gulf she'll be over very warm water alot longer.

[Brent]

Guys... if the NHC thought there was even a chance for tropical storm force winds west of Destin, they would issue a watch. Landfall point is around Apalachicola which is WAY east of Pensacola. The west side will be weak anyway...

[Janie34]

I'm waiting to see how far Frances moves to the W or WNW. The trough sure is taking its time.

[Janie34]

I remember back in the day when TWC used to broadcast NOAA's forecasts instead of its own. Over the next couple of days TWC has winds at Mobile increasing to 35 mph, whereas NWS is considerably more conservative. Interesting.

Also interesting is the marine discussion from NWS_Mobile:

MARINE...HURRICANE WARNING ENDING AT DESTIN WITHOUT HAS CREATED
SOME CONFLICTS WITH WIND FORECAST AND NOT BEING ABLE TO GRADUALLY
REDUCE SPEED WITHOUT HAVING SOME TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE
MARINE FORECAST. WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT STAY IN PORT FROM PNS TO DTS
AND HAVE GUST TO ABOVE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

[~SirCane]

I am confused about this as well. Frances is the size of Texas and we're due for some rough weather even if this thing hits Panama City. Their PROJECTED window goes all the way to Pensacola. This makes no sense to me at all.

I have a feeling by 11pm the warnings may shift all the way to Mobile. Not sure why the Suwanee River is under a Hurricane warning???? Seems to me it should be a TS warning in that area.

I'm baffled about this.

[Opal storm]

I am confused about this as well. Frances is the size of Texas and we're due for some rough weather even if this thing hits Panama City. Their PROJECTED window goes all the way to Pensacola. This makes no sense to me at all.

I have a feeling by 11pm the warnings may shift all the way to Mobile. Not sure why the Suwanee River is under a Hurricane warning???? Seems to me it should be a TS warning in that area.

I'm baffled about this.

I agree 100%.Don't know why there's not a T.S warning in that area,I thought there was but when you mentioned it,I checked and there wasn't.

[SootyTern]

Been on the S/W (weak) side of this thing for 3 days now.....the projected SUSTAINED TS force winds haven't been as far out on this side.

Ifi I was in Pensacola I'd probably prepare for a Cat 1 hit and not be too surprised/bummed if you see less....that leaves room for intensification or westward motion.