Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 05, 2004
radar data and surface observations indicate that the large center
of circulation of Frances continues to move slowly across the
central Florida Peninsula while weakening. Although the pressure
remains quite low...975 mb... the initial intensity has been
decreased to 60 knots. Frances is forecast to continue moving
toward the west-northwest about 9 knots and then emerge over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight. Because Frances has
maintained a well-defined cloud structure on radar and should be
over water for 12 hours or so...it could regain hurricane status
again before moving inland within the Hurricane Warning area. The
official forecast is very close to the global model consensus.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 05/2100z 28.0n 82.2w 60 kt
12hr VT 06/0600z 28.5n 83.5w 65 kt...over water
24hr VT 06/1800z 29.7n 85.0w 65 kt...moving inland
36hr VT 07/0600z 31.5n 86.0w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 07/1800z 32.5n 86.0w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 08/1800z 36.0n 85.0w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 09/1800z 39.5n 81.5w 10 kt...inland
120hr VT 10/1800z...inland
$$
ALSO TRACK SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT FURTHER EAST NOW ENTERING GEORGIA SOME.
