Truth or Spoof:Ivan strongest cane ever at latitude 10.1N???

[Sirocco]

Fox news described Ivan as "exploding into a category 3."

They also stated that it was the "strongest hurricane every recorded at this low a latitude" (10.1 N)....

Anyone have one of them hurricane fact books to verify,
or is "Ivan the Terrible" going to set records as a mega-cane?

[opera ghost]

Fact.

[hurricane_lover]

Many Lives may be lost with this one, folks.

[FritzPaul]

It was the only hurricane to form south of 10 degrees since they started keeping records in the late 1800's.

Note: This was a quote from Dr. Lyons earlier today.

[ilmc172pilot]

looks like he's gonna live up to ivan the terribles name

[banshee]

If its a hurricane already, what is the probability it will remain a hurricane or strong hurricane approching the US? What are the probabilities it could reach cat 5 and maintain that status or will it fluctuate often?

[Stormchaser16]

Likely it will not be able to maintain strength all the way to the united states........ Many hurricanes have had SOMETHING get in their way eventually to disrupt the VERY sensitive structure of a Cat 3-5 storm. Some examples of this are, Lilly,Floyd,and now we can add Frances to this group as well. My prediction all along when i saw Frances becoming so powerful that far away from land was that it would never be able to maintain that strength all the way to Florida. It just was not going to happen. My predicted landfall intensity(not to toot my own horn here but to prove a point for Ivan) 3 days before Frances made landfall was an intensity between 110-120 MPH, and this was even too high by just a bit, this was back when Frances was 145 MPH..... I think it is EASIER yet not the only time that a major hurricane can make landfall that strong, is when they bomb out closer to land, hence Charley, hence Andrew, and yes even hence Alex, OR if they SLOWLY strengthen prior to landfall. It is possible tho for stronger systems to maintain strength however any slight disruption in the environment can quickly make for a weakening storm, combine that with the struggle of ongoing ERC's, you have a recipe that says maintaining that strength is quite hard.

Now i kno that Frances weakened because of dry air and shear(start an argument over which one it was and mods will be called in because its ridiculous) but the point is that something like that was bound to get in its way and disrupt the delicate structure.

[canegrl04]

How about Mitch and Gilbert

[Cookiely]

How about Mitch and Gilbert

The proper ingredients and timing for a disaster which is thankfully very rare.

[Stormchaser16]

Obviously you cannot read woman

[CaluWxBill]

Well a hurricane formed aroun 2N in the Western Pacific. It developed in a very untraditional way. but in the Atlantic yes.

[banshee]

Thank you Stormchaser. Now I have another question. You say a Cat 3-5 has a very sensitive structure. Would that mean it can be disrupted easier than a 1 or 2 and if so, why? I believe I have it worked out in my head, but would like a clear explaination.

[Aslkahuna]

Ivan is applicable to Atlantic storms only. There have been many instances of Western Pacific typhoons going 'phoon below 10N with one hitting Davao City is southern Mindanao-well below 10N as a Super. We can't forget Vamei from a couple of years ago or so that became a 75kt typhoon with a defined eye at latitude 1.5N. Southern Hemisphere storms also can become strong equatorward of 10S. The stronger a Tropical Cyclone becomes the more highly organized it becomes and anything that disrupts that organization and the balance between inflow and outflow will weaken the storm substanially. Important to note that in a strong and fully mature Tropical cyclone, the inflow is found in the lower levels of the storm which is why the passage near islands but not over can disrupt the system to some degree.

Steve

[Stormchaser16]

Yes yes, stronger hurricanes need near or perfect conditions to maintain that strength. In plain words if a system becomes very strong and then the environment shifts, it will naturally respond to those conditions and weaken. A weaker system will respond to those affects as well of course. I.E Frances was very strong, but the system got easily disrupted when the environment became less favorable for maintaining that strength. A weaker system that lets say faced these conditions would have been easily disrupted as well. Stronger systems have very sensitive and complex internal structures to maintain, they undergo Eyeall replacement cycycles which add to the delicacy of a well structured hurricane. Conditions need to maintained at perfect or near it to maintain that type of status, if they aren't(like frances) you see what happens. The point is, if a Cat 1 spun up in the atlantic then moved into the bad environment frances moved into, it would LIKELY not weaken as much as when we put frances thru that environment because the Cat 4 system has a MUCH more complex eye and internal core to maintain then does the Cat 1 system.