Hurricane Models

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charleston_hugo_veteran
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Hurricane Models

#1 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:30 pm

Which hurricane model was the best at predicting Frances's track?
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Matthew5

#2 Postby Matthew5 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:32 pm

Ecmwf Forecasted it for days. It hit slightly north of what the Ecmwf shown!
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melhow
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#3 Postby melhow » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:35 pm

could you post a link to where we can view that model?
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#4 Postby ericinmia » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:36 pm

melhow wrote:could you post a link to where we can view that model?


http://www.ecmwf.int

More specificaly:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4090512!!/


-Eric
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#5 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:37 pm

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/
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Matthew5

#6 Postby Matthew5 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:37 pm

Here is the Ecmwf http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/index.html

For one it is much better with strong tropical cycloens. So we will see!
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#7 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:37 pm

The ECMWF also forecast it to head out to sea until the last day or two, and it forecast Frances to hit New Orleans. I think it was terrible with Frances. The best model by far was LBAR, one of the poorest-performing models ever. But it nailed Frances. The GFS did pretty good at times as well. GFDL was pretty bad.
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#8 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:39 pm

:eek: It looks to my non-pro. eyes that that model has Ivan near Southern FL/Keys this weekend - ugh

*yeah, yeah, I know - models can change
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#9 Postby obxhurricane » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:41 pm

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/restrict/

Doesn't update as early as the EC link...it updates around 9:45 every evening.
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Matthew5

#10 Postby Matthew5 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:42 pm

The Ecmwf forecasted 13 runs taking this hurricane into south Florida. I don't know where you get your information from? The Lbar did good below 20 north with Frances.
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#11 Postby obxhurricane » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:48 pm

It should be added that the EC is not the most reliable of models for TC tracking. It only runs once per day...the GFS for instance runs 4 times per day. Ech model had their ups and downs with Frances...and it is generally best to know the trends amongst the model consesus and try to follow that...if you can.
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Anonymous

#12 Postby Anonymous » Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:51 pm

ncweatherwizard.
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