Derek: Cuba Impact on Ivan?

[B-Bear]

Derek,

I'm curious about something. If your track verifies, how much intensity would you think Cuba might take out of Ivan if he tracks across the island in the middle or western side? I know the mountains of Cuba are primarily on the southeast side of the island, so by your track it would seem Ivan may miss them. Can he make it across Cuba without serious diminishment of intensity?

[btsgmdad]

We saw how little the Western side of Cuba took out of a storm with Charley!

[Canelaw99]

But if I'm not mistaken, the east side of Cuba, where Ivan is poised to hit, is the side that tends to be more mountainous....

[ericinmia]

But if I'm not mistaken, the east side of Cuba, where Ivan is poised to hit, is the side that tends to be more mountainous....

very true..

[btsgmdad]

Correct, however Derek's forecast takes the storm more toward Central or Western Cuba.

[Canelaw99]

Yep, and the NHC's forecast has it barely skirting the island, so probably, overall, not a whole lot of opportunities for the mountains to shear it a bit.

[B-Bear]

But if I'm not mistaken, the east side of Cuba, where Ivan is poised to hit, is the side that tends to be more mountainous....

very true..

Except that's not where Derek has it forecast to go. He tracks it further west before turning it north, which makes it look like it might track across central or western Cuba. I realize that a track across extreme western cuba wouldn't take a lot out of him, as the island is so narrow there. But I was curious about how much intensity Ivan might lose if he tracks across central or west Cuba where the island is a little broader, yet not mountainous.

[B-Bear]

Yep, and the NHC's forecast has it barely skirting the island, so probably, overall, not a whole lot of opportunities for the mountains to shear it a bit.

I'm willing to bet that NHC is going to revise their track further west. They're turning him too early. Like Derek pointed out, there's not a lot to turn him north in the next few days other than the coreolis effect, and he's running along at a fast clip, so I bet they'll adjust their track further west prior to a north turn after the models take the speed and ridge to the north into more consideration.

[B-Bear]

Here's what I'm getting at folks--

Derek has this storm forecast to track far more west than many of the other models. I agree with him. Number one, Ivan is moving fast. Number two, the ridge is still strong to the north. This storm ought to be able to get further west before it turns, as Derek has it forecast to do.

If this verifies, then this is setting up for the potential of a central GOM event. And where he goes from the end of Derek's track would be dependent upon what ridges and troughs come into play around 7 days from now.

So what do you all see looming over the horizon that might take this hurricane north from toward FL from Cuba, NW toward Galveston, or NNW toward New Orleans?

Let's hear it.

[hial2]

All i can say to you is keep your eye on the ever changing CONE OF UNCERTAINTY during the next few days...How many times have you seen the cone aiming at a particular area for longer than 1 day or so?..So many things can happen between now and then...Look, my guess would be either a GOM event or NC...like they always (with few and far exceptions) do.

[B-Bear]

All i can say to you is keep your eye on the ever changing CONE OF UNCERTAINTY during the next few days...How many times have you seen the cone aiming at a particular area for longer than 1 day or so?..So many things can happen between now and then...Look, my guess would be either a GOM event or NC...like they always (with few and far exceptions) do.

I'm in Lincoln, Nebraska, so I feel relatively safe from this storm.

I'm just curious about what weather systems are forecast to be in the picture 7 days from now in the event Derek's track does verify. It's just discussion. I'm not making life and death decisions with this information.

[Derek Ortt]

Cuba is very interesting.

3 scenarios:

1. Storm crosses Hispaniola and moves over Cuba: Ivan would intensify over Cuba assuming a barotropic (low-shear) environment due to the conservation of potential vorticity

2. Storm misses Hispaniola and moves over E Cuba: Ivan weakens significantly over the mountains, also due to PV conservation

3. Storm misses hispaniola but hits W Cuba: That one has already played out with Charley

[B-Bear]

Thanks! That's what I wanted to hear.

And, based upon your current track, I am assuming you are betting on scenario #3?

[Derek Ortt]

2 and 3 are much more likely than one the way things appear to be shaping up now

[MBryant]

I think speed must be considered when estimating the destructive effect on the storms structure. If you look at many of the "Cuba's moutains tore it up" examples, I believe you will find that they stalled over the structure, rather than quickly moving over it which might be far less destructive to it's organization.

[B-Bear]

Agreed. And I don't know about going over Cuba's mountains. But to my recollection, there has never been a hurricane to make a direct hit on Hispaniola's mountains and come back to major hurricane status--regardless of how quickly it transversed the island.