8pm Ivan-NOW CATEGORY FOUR-135 MPH WINDS!!!

[Brent]

At the rate its moving it will be at the 55W tomorrow. I think we need a recon to go out there tomorrow evening.

There's a recon flight scheduled for 2pm EDT tomorrow.

[B-Bear]

Two thoughts. Even if he is weakened from haiti and cuba, what's stopping him from intensifying rapidly again? Like starting over. SSTs are warm, low shear, etc. Second, does the windfield expand over time for a storm if it iis over water for a long period of time, or does it tend to stay compact if it starts out that way?

Well, he's not exactly compact. He's close to 600 miles across already.

[BigO]

I think he was referring to the size of the windfield rather than the sizer of the whole storm. Correct me if I am wrong, but storms with narrower windfields tend to be more intense in development...

[MBryant]

I'm not trying to throw cold water on the superstorm advocates, but Ivan will go through several eyewall replacements and it is unlikely that the new ones will be wound as tightly as this one.

[canegrl04]

The smaller the cane,the more intense.Its like that old analogy to figure skaters.When they bring their arms closer to their bodies,they twirl around faster

[dennis1x1]

thats not true.....there have been large cat 5s and small cat 5s.

[bahamaswx]

The smaller the cane,the more intense.Its like that old analogy to figure skaters.When they bring their arms closer to their bodies,they twirl around faster

Depending on the pressure of course. And the background pressures.

[MBryant]

I think Eyewall size does corelate (sic) well with intensity. That's one reason Frances' wind speeds fell so rapidly. The eyewall was much larger when it hit florida than when it was a cat 4. I'll look up the exact figures and get back with you.

[jes]

I though someone said during Francis that a cat 4 can't maintain that strenth longer than 9 days. Was that correct?

[dennis1x1]

eyewall size theoretically.....not hurricane size which was being discussed earlier.

as for the 9 day thing.....no science to argue that one way or another.

[mkapw]

quick ? ... I'm so new to this storm watch stuff so forgive me if I ask a completely dumb question. I'm in Central NC, the only hurrican I can remember that we actually felt and was affected hard was Fran .... Ivan gonna be anything like that?

[BigO]

The smaller the cane,the more intense.Its like that old analogy to figure skaters.When they bring their arms closer to their bodies,they twirl around faster

That was my understanding as well...or at least how the phenomena was illustrated to me...

[bahamaswx]

I though someone said during Francis that a cat 4 can't maintain that strenth longer than 9 days. Was that correct?

False, but it is uncommon for TC's to maintain major status for much longer than 9 days.

[dennis1x1]

someone forgot to tell gilbert that myth about size vs strength

[MGC]

Incredible intensification rate with Ivan. Ivan is as large as Frances in terms of outflow. Will be quite interesting when recon goes in......MGC

[Storminole]

Over the years, I've seen enough conventional-wisdom "rules" fall by wayside to conclude that there are no rules for hurricanes, just tendencies. The only actual rules are the laws of physics, but the problem is that hurricanes involve the interaction of an incredible number of variables. So my only rule of thumb is, never say never.

[wx247]

Over the years, I've seen enough conventional-wisdom "rules" fall by wayside to conclude that there are no rules for hurricanes, just tendencies. The only actual rules are the laws of physics, but the problem is that hurricanes involve the interaction of an incredible number of variables. So my only rule of thumb is, never say never.

I think you are right on target. Mother Nature sets her own rules and sometimes she forgets to tell us.

[abajan]

At the rate its moving it will be at the 55W tomorrow. I think we need a recon to go out there tomorrow evening.

I want recon out there PRONTO!

[donsutherland1]

Brent,

The record for most Category 4 storms in a season is 5 set in 1999.

[canegrl04]

I think 2004 will tie or break the 1999 record