00:00 UTC Models Ivan=Ummm more closer to Puerto Rico

[cycloneye]

CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040906 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040906 0000 040906 1200 040907 0000 040907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 48.5W 11.4N 51.5W 12.3N 54.3W 13.1N 56.9W
BAMM 10.6N 48.5W 11.5N 51.8W 12.5N 54.9W 13.4N 57.9W
A98E 10.6N 48.5W 11.6N 52.0W 12.5N 55.2W 13.3N 58.0W
LBAR 10.6N 48.5W 11.4N 52.0W 12.1N 55.8W 12.4N 59.5W
SHIP 115KTS 124KTS 125KTS 122KTS
DSHP 115KTS 124KTS 125KTS 122KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040908 0000 040909 0000 040910 0000 040911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 59.3W 16.7N 63.3W 19.2N 66.2W 21.3N 67.6W
BAMM 14.6N 60.6W 17.2N 65.2W 19.8N 68.6W 22.2N 70.4W
A98E 14.0N 60.4W 16.0N 64.4W 18.4N 67.9W 21.5N 70.1W
LBAR 13.1N 63.3W 15.5N 69.5W 19.5N 70.9W 22.3N 71.2W
SHIP 123KTS 119KTS 119KTS 111KTS
DSHP 123KTS 119KTS 64KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 48.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 45.1W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 41.4W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 948MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 90NM

Oh boy they bring it more closer to PR.

[Brent]

Graphic isn't up yet, BUT if it crosses Puerto Rico it won't weaken NEAR as much because the island is smaller and the mountains aren't as tall.

Overall not good news for anyone.

[lilbump3000]

Most likely we will see a shift in the NHC forecast track at 11 P.M. to the right.

[Derek Ortt]

likely based upon the bad GFS initial conditions


We should get a better idea after tomorrow's G-IV flight. Until then, these models are just making blindfolded guesses

[canegrl04]

Not good at all

[ericinmia]

[cycloneye]

Scary lines.

[dennis1x1]

looks like a trough coming through...will it pick him up or not is the question....hes way south....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

ships model also shows weakening days 2-3.......it did a good job with frances.

[lilbump3000]

What the models might be doing is thinking that this trough that is currently in the central US will break the ridge down enough and the system moving so fast, it might catch up with the weakness its going to create and the system is going to turn. Now this is what i think the models are predicting.

[NJCane]

That curve could be wonderful news for people in FL, bad for PR and good for me as it would send some good waves to the east coast. Hopefully all stay safe and this affects as few people as possible directly.

[BigO]

NHC's forecast seems to be following the GFDL.

[lilbump3000]

That doesnt surprise me one bit. The NHC always agree with the GFDL model.

[dennis1x1]

they like the gfdl but will ignore it if need be (frances curving to NC for instance)...

right now all the models are very close together up to hispaniola....then will he be moving nw or n is the question.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like a fish storm to me, YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The US needs a break.

[OtherHD]

Last time I checked Puerto Rico WAS part of the US.

[NorthGaWeather]

Doesn't look like a fish yet stormcenter too many unknowns in the mix still.

[bahamaswx]

I'm really tired of people calling hurricanes that don't landfall on the USA as a "fish".

[btsgmdad]

Please let it be a true fish and miss all land.

[caribepr]

Thanks OtherHD, and beyond that, there are just a whole lot of people as well on islands that are not the US that post on this board (or don't) and have lives and homes and kids and they ARE a part of this whole hurricane thing...remember??