Will Frances regain hurricane intensity?

[MGC]

It is difficult for tropical cyclones to regain their former self once they have spend an extended period over land. Case in point, Hurricane Isidore in 2002. As you recall, Isidore was a Cat 3 hurricane that spent a couple of days over the Yucatan before emerging into the GOM as a TS. Isidore never did regain hurricane intensity as its wind field expanded and inner core was disrupted. Frances won't spent nearly as much time over the GOM as Isidore did thus its chances of regaining hurricane status are remote. I'd say Frances has a 1 in 4 shot at regaining hurricane intensity. Frances should generate quite a surge on the Florida panhandle coast. Apalachee Bay should experience the greatest storm tides. I am currently thinking Frances will come ashore near St. George Island....MGC

[dennis1x1]

the surge should be very minor regardless......tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane.....my initial guess would be tropical storm....but 75 mph isnt too high a hurdle to cross.

[Stormcenter]

No based on current her north movement over Florida.
She may not make it out of Florida. I know
many people may not believe this but I think
they lucked out with Frances. She should
have been a cat 4 at landfall but thanks to the
dry air intrusion that never happened.

I think Florida will also luck out with Ivan. He may end up
being a fish storm based on the latest model runs not
that I would agree with them 100%.

[flair]

I thought she could have, but a few hours ago, after a steady west-northwest movement, she abruptly started this bizarre N-NW motion. I thought it was just a jog, but I don't think it is now. At the most she will just clip the NE Gulf.