Ivan 0Z tropicals....DOH!

[Scott_inVA]

er, didn't expect to that this soon.

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[wx247]

Looks good Scott.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

This is exactly why we should not get our panties in a wad yet.....it changes all the time....I don't start worrying till I get a hurricane warning!

[Scott_inVA]

Looks good Scott.

good for what?

Too much Ridging IMO for a fish.
Recurves SW of the 20|60 benchmark bad news for FL and US East coast.

If this sticks for a few runs, I'm crankin' Lonesome Day by The Boss:
"Hell's Brewin', Dark Suns on the Rise"

Scott

[MWatkins]

er, didn't expect to that this soon.

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

hey Scott...

the 18Z GFS looked a littile strange in the 500MB fields with a surprise 500MB low developing in the central atlantic...this may be what has thrown these models to the north so soon.

MW

[canegrl04]

Strong ridging is suppose to keep Ivan on a w-wnw track for awhile.I'll believe these new model runs if hes recurving beofre 60w 20n

[Scott_inVA]

My panties aren't in a wad...just passing along what's current

I don't start worrying till I get a hurricane warning!

Amazing comment from anybody who has been through a hurricane.

[huricanwatcher]

question? ....... NC storms usually hit what latitude and longitude to give us a hint its headed our way?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

My panties aren't in a wad...just passing along what's current

I don't start worrying till I get a hurricane warning!

Amazing comment from anybody who has been through a hurricane.

Sorry, you took that wrong...I am glad for the current info...but it changes so much it's not worth worrying about YET! I have gotten my self so hyped up, so many times for nothing.

[Scott_inVA]

er, didn't expect to that this soon.

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

hey Scott...

the 18Z GFS looked a littile strange in the 500MB fields with a surprise 500MB low developing in the central atlantic...this may be what has thrown these models to the north so soon.

MW

Yeah, looking at it Mike and can't figure if the low is in response to the ridges, or just typical GFS feedback. Also, one might expect a vort at H5 if there's a Cat-4 bombing out.

Scott

[Innotech]

this is hte type of storm that looks fantastic on radar, spins up fast and flies into the DR, falls apart, and is a non event afterwards, far too disorganized to do any real damage. Its a great watch, but I really dont htink it will significantly impact the mainland. Now hte islands...well....I shall pray for their safety. But as for Florida and Gulf, Im not all that worried about this.

[obxhurricane]

This really makes sense to me. Really...the western flank of the ridge will break down(thanks in part to Frances). It wont take much of a weakness to turn this storm poleward. Ivan will very likey run right up the shoot and out to sea once he leaves PR/DR.

[Scott_inVA]

question? ....... NC storms usually hit what latitude and longitude to give us a hint its headed our way?

Don't know about just NC, but "the benchmark" I've always understood is 20N|60W (DT and I have a huge argument years ago as his research is based on 25|60)...20|60 is "tighter" and what I've used.

A significant percentage of TCs that pass near but below (SW quad is below, NE quad is above) the benchmark either landfall or come close to the US mainland. TCs well south of 20° with a strong western component (under 290°) usually don't come up the East Coast, but get to the GOM if surviving the Carib.

Helps to have a trof along/west of the Apps if you want a TC coming in on the Carolinas. Maybe others have specifics on NC but that's how I've always used the benchmark.

HIH
Scott

[huricanwatcher]

question? ....... NC storms usually hit what latitude and longitude to give us a hint its headed our way?

Don't know about just NC, but "the benchmark" I've always understood is 20N|60W (DT and I have a huge argument years ago as his research is based on 25|60)...20|60 is "tighter" and what I've used.

A significant percentage of TCs that pass near but below (SW quad is below, NE quad is above) the benchmark either landfall or come close to the US mainland. TCs well south of 20° with a strong western component (under 290°) usually don't come up the East Coast, but get to the GOM if surviving the Carib.

Helps to have a trof along/west of the Apps if you want a TC coming in on the Carolinas. Maybe others have specifics on NC but that's how I've always used the benchmark.

HIH
Scott

thanks scott, thought i heard 20/60 ... or 25/60 ... wasnt sure... but you can bet i be plotting IVAN

[wxman57]

The models were forecasting Frances to stall around 40W then head north and out to sea. Then it was 45W and out to sea, then 50W, etc. All season long, the models have moved deep tropical systems too slowly and too far north. Ivan is likely not being handled well by any of the models either. It'll probably move faster and farther south than indicated by the models. Could well be a GoM threat in 6-7 days. But I think I'll put my money on Florida again.

[calidoug]

Innotech, what a bunch of nonsense.

You realize that small changes in the track would mean that the storm *won't* hit hispanola, right?

And what's with "spins up fast, looks good on radar" ???

As if it's "not really" a Cat 3 or 4 or 5, or whatever the NHC determines it to be?

Just because it is currently headed for Hispanola?

[obxhurricane]

The models were forecasting Frances to stall around 40W then head north and out to sea. Then it was 45W and out to sea, then 50W, etc. All season long, the models have moved deep tropical systems too slowly and too far north. Ivan is likely not being handled well by any of the models either. It'll probably move faster and farther south than indicated by the models. Could well be a GoM threat in 6-7 days. But I think I'll put my money on Florida again.

I'm not sure if the models were actually indicating out to sea as you say. (they were turning the system north...but none showed a recurve) They were indicating a northward motion due to a weakening of the ridge. This northward motion did eventually happen...just a little further west than the models originally forecast. So...the models were right in this case...Frances turned NW and MISSED THE ISLANDS...then turned West again.

I guess it all depends on the shade of glasses your wearing...

In any case...once again the models are forecasting a weakness in the ridge. The culprit? Frances of all things. Yes that's right...Frances will leave the door open for a poleward motion of Ivan. It's rather elementary actually.

[obxhurricane]

And oh by the way...Frances did begin to turn NW between 40 and 45 West.

[watchingthetropics]

very bad news for Puerto Rico as models are getting the hurricane closer or over the island