Steve Lyons:The Rate Ivan Is Deepening..

[canegrl04]

he could become cat 5 in next 12 hours

[tropicana]

in fact... Saffir-Simpson might wanna re-calibrate their scale 'cause at this rate..IVAN may wanna go all the way to CAT 10 if he could.



-justin-

[wx247]

he could become cat 5 in next 12 hours

Not necessarily what we wanted to hear. I hope everyone in the islands are paying attention.

[Wolfman21]

could this early explosion hinder him in the end?? Or could he possibly hold Cat 4-5 status all the way up until Mainland landfall???

[btsgmdad]

I can't believe a storm that winds up this quickly can maintain itself all the way to the US. This may be a create its own environment storm ala Gilbert and Mitch where they are so much the dominate feature that they do their own thing. Some hope, perhaps.

[STORMSURGE]

Very Scary, and not wasting any time getting here either

[Indystorm]

I can't believe a storm that winds up this quickly can maintain itself all the way to the US. This may be a create its own environment storm ala Gilbert and Mitch where they are so much the dominate feature that they do their own thing. Some hope, perhaps.

Very rare for intense possibly category 5 storms to maintain that strength for long periods of time. Then again we have not had a hurricane of this intensity this far south in the Atlantic basin either. Maybe Ivan intends to rewrite the rules. Very scary indeed.

[wayoutfront]

I think with him moving along at such a quick clip, becoming a major early won't hinder him at all

[clueless newbie]

I can't believe a storm that winds up this quickly can maintain itself all the way to the US.

If the conditions were optimal. I would say that it could. However, it is going into slightly cooler waters and for sure will interact with land at least a bit. Low shear environment might not persist all 7+ days it needs to reach US. Eyewall replacement cycles will also play their role, although only fluctuating its intensity, not bringing it down significantly.

I think that if it becomes an annular hurricane, it can maintain its cat4-5 intensity also in the slightly cooler waters ahead, as those hurricanes seem to be somehow more efficient.

This may be a create its own environment storm ala Gilbert and Mitch where they are so much the dominate feature that they do their own thing. Some hope, perhaps.

I am not buying 'create its own environment'. For that,

1. the hurricane must be very intense
2. it must be also very large (its area of deep convection, no just the outflow)
3. there should not be strong features around, i.e. it can supress/change weak or maybe moderate ridges/troughs, but strong ridges/troughs would steer it anyway

[OtherHD]

While the current explosive deepening of Ivan is impressive, it is certainly not unprecedented.

Keith in 2000 went from a 65 mph TS to a 140 mph monster off the Yucatan in 24 hours. That's a 75 mph increase. He dropped from 987 to 941 MB in that time.

[SouthernWx]

In looking at the model guidance and forecast synoptic situation 4-7 days down the road....IMHO folks in south Florida had better hope and pray Ivan plows into those 10,000' foot mountains on Hispanola.....because if Ivan skirts east or south of them, I don't see anything to prevent this from being a very intense hurricane as it approaches south Florida or the Keys.

I saw 155 mph hurricane David's core shredded by Hispanola in 1979....the same mountains that tore the guts from Georges in 1998; and neither hurricane ever regained cat-3 status.

Southern Florida may very well experience a hurricane by this time next week, but it would be far better to be another 105 mph Georges or 95 mph David at Florida landfall as opposed to a 170+ mph Andrew.

[btsgmdad]

Amen to that.

[Stormsfury]

While the current explosive deepening of Ivan is impressive, it is certainly not unprecedented.

Keith in 2000 went from a 65 mph TS to a 140 mph monster off the Yucatan in 24 hours. That's a 75 mph increase. He dropped from 987 to 941 MB in that time.

Thanks for the information (I don't have to research it now) ... anyway, this is the kind of deepening that's usually reserved for the WPAC ...

Conditions over Ivan are absolutely prime right now ... the western side is being enhanced by the TUTT type low created in the outflow wake of Frances stateside ... NOW, if IVAN catches up to the TUTT too fast, shearing will result on the western face and we'll see a level off or weakening mode ...

[Stormsfury]

I can't believe a storm that winds up this quickly can maintain itself all the way to the US.

If the conditions were optimal. I would say that it could. However, it is going into slightly cooler waters and for sure will interact with land at least a bit. Low shear environment might not persist all 7+ days it needs to reach US. Eyewall replacement cycles will also play their role, although only fluctuating its intensity, not bringing it down significantly.

I think that if it becomes an annular hurricane, it can maintain its cat4-5 intensity also in the slightly cooler waters ahead, as those hurricanes seem to be somehow more efficient.

This may be a create its own environment storm ala Gilbert and Mitch where they are so much the dominate feature that they do their own thing. Some hope, perhaps.

I am not buying 'create its own environment'. For that,

1. the hurricane must be very intense
2. it must be also very large (its area of deep convection, no just the outflow)
3. there should not be strong features around, i.e. it can supress/change weak or maybe moderate ridges/troughs, but strong ridges/troughs would steer it anyway

One of the things to remember, NO CAT 5 has ever struck the U.S. North of 30ºN ... Camille was the furthest north for such a storm, with the Labor Day (1935) hurricane and of course, Andrew in 1992 ... one other prospect added in was the 1886 Indianola Hurricane which struck Indianola, TX ... with sustained winds analyzed by AOML at 155 MPH, also well south of the 30ºN benchmark ...

Ivan is going to encounter some more hostile conditions should IVAN continue to outrace the TUTT-type low to its west ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

I can't believe a storm that winds up this quickly can maintain itself all the way to the US. This may be a create its own environment storm ala Gilbert and Mitch where they are so much the dominate feature that they do their own thing. Some hope, perhaps.

Very rare for intense possibly category 5 storms to maintain that strength for long periods of time. Then again we have not had a hurricane of this intensity this far south in the Atlantic basin either. Maybe Ivan intends to rewrite the rules. Very scary indeed.

The longest any hurricane sustained CAT 5 status was 1950 (that analog, yet again) ... 54 hours (Hurricane Dog ... reached 185 mph for a total of 18 hours at its maxima) ... Allen was the only storm to reach CAT 5 status THREE times, each time, lasting only 24 hours or less ...

[Guest]

those mountains on hispaniola are like a murderer. They are like the pitchfork, they go into the hurricanes and wrnch everything out. Pretty efficent. At least theose murderes help the U.S (unfortunatley someone has to pay the price for weakening the hurricane- Haiti and DR.) At this time I think it will graze Hispaniola (passing just to the North).

[obxhurricane]

Upper level SW shear will weaken Ivan at about the time he reaches the Islands...although he will still be a cat 3 at least.

Hold on down there...

[Stormsfury]

Upper level SW shear will weaken Ivan at about the time he reaches the Islands...although he will still be a cat 3 at least.

Hold on down there...

We're agreed on the SW shear since Ivan is still outracing the TUTT-type low by some 5 MPH ... and furthermore, Ivan has got to have an eyewall replacement cycle soon ... the eye right now appears like a pin needle ...

FYI ...

Since 5 AM this morning, the estimated pressure drop has been 39 MB in just 15 hours ... (987 mb down to 948 mb) ...

24 hours ago ... (actually 27 hours, no 8 PM advisory yesterday) ... (994 mb down to 948 mb) ... 46 MB drop ...

36 hours ago ... (actually 39 hours, no 8 AM advisory yesterday) ... (997 mb down to 948 mb) ... 49 MB drop ...

[SootyTern]

[quote="clueless newbie] I think that if it becomes an annular hurricane, it can maintain its cat4-5 intensity also in the slightly cooler waters ahead, as those hurricanes seem to be somehow more efficient.
[quote]


What's an 'annular' hurricane?

PS-why do I think 'clueless newbie' is really Max Mayfield or Stacy Stewart or somebody going undercover?

[~SirCane]

I'm worried Ivan may enter the Gulf like Georges in 1998.