San Juan AFD concerns about trough and Ivan

[cycloneye]

Looking ahead ... dangerous category 3 hurricane ivan continues to
look rather remarkable on satellite and is forecasted to continue to
get stronger. based on latest official forecast ... which was similar
to previous one ... ivan expected to continue moving on a west
northwest track through monday night ... then cross the central
lesser antilles tuesday afternoon ... and continue west northwest to
northwest across the eastern caribbean wednesday ... and then pass
within 120 miles of the southwest coast of puerto rico wednesday
night through early thursday ... as a strong category 4 hurricane.

A concern for the track as system gets closer ... may well be
aforementioned mid to upper level trough lingering over the eastern
caribbean. various solutions on what will become of this feature...
but water vapor imagery clearly showing that it is still there and
not moving much. would imagine that if this feature were to linger
too long over the eastern caribbean ... that either ivan would be
forced a little more north and west than now expected ... or some
southwest shear might eventually be imparted on the system. will be
interesting to see how this plays out over the next 12 to 36 hours.

So ... given uncertainties in track when storm is over the eastern
caribbean and potential steering concerns due to this mid to upper
level trough ... ivan remains a significant concern locally. we have
already had numerous phone calls from the media ... local officials
and residents and visitors about ivan and would expect these to
continue to increase steadily. as mentioned earlier today ... also
remaining a concern ... is the continuation of the holiday weekend
through monday and the current local pre - occupation with frances in
florida. thus ... we have continued to hit ivan hard in local
products ... stressing uncertainties ... but at least continuing to
mention the likelihood of a category 4 hurricane passing by to our
south. all local residents and visitors should continue to closely
monitor the progress of dangerous hurricane ivan.

Let's see what happens if the trough can influence the track of Ivan or not.

[Sirocco]

Florida cane part 3....

[msbee]

we're talking about the islands here.
Let's stick with that for now please

[bahamaswx]

Indeed.

[mf_dolphin]

Concerns for the islands definitely come first!

[cycloneye]

Yes this discussion is for the islands about if the trough now in eaatern caribbean may influence Ivans track.

[cycloneye]

Bump

[caribepr]

Thank you, again. (Just an island note, listening to people on the bay outside my window on their boats, here from the big island, singing, partying and not watching the weather at all, a weird respite for me)