Tropical Storm Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 49
Statement as of 03:00Z on September 06, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwest Gulf Coast
of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Destin.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southwest coast
of Florida from south of Anna Maria Island to Ocean Reef including
all of the Florida Keys...Florida Bay and the Dry Tortugas...and
for the East Coast of Florida and Georgia from north of Jupiter
Inlet northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia...including Lake
Okeechobee.
Tropical storm center located near 28.3n 82.7w at 06/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 976 mb
Max sustained winds 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
50 kt.......125ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt.......175ne 125se 125sw 175nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 350se 200sw 200nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 28.3n 82.7w at 06/0300z
at 06/0000z center was located near 28.1n 82.3w
forecast valid 06/1200z 28.8n 83.7w...over water
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 50se 50sw 75nw.
34 kt...150ne 125se 125sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 07/0000z 30.0n 85.0w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 0ne 40se 40sw 0nw.
50 kt... 50ne 75se 75sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 150se 150sw 100nw.
Forecast valid 07/1200z 31.6n 85.6w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 125se 125sw 50nw.
Forecast valid 08/0000z 33.0n 85.7w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 09/0000z 37.0n 84.0w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 10/0000z 41.5n 79.0w...extratropical
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Outlook valid 11/0000z...absorbed by a front
request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 28.3n 82.7w
next advisory at 06/0900z
forecaster Lawrence
11pm Frances-65 mph winds
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Brent
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 49
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 05, 2004
...Frances remains a large tropical storm...is moving offshore to
the Gulf of Mexico...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwest Gulf Coast
of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Destin.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southwest coast
of Florida from south of Anna Maria Island to Ocean Reef including
all of the Florida Keys...Florida Bay and the Dry Tortugas...and
for the East Coast of Florida and Georgia from north of Jupiter
Inlet northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia...including Lake
Okeechobee.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Frances was
located near latitude 28.3 north...longitude 82.7 west or about
25 miles north-northwest of Tampa Florida.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph and a turn
toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. The
center of Frances is at the Gulf Coast and is forecast to move over
the waters of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on monay and then
move inland over the Florida Panhandle in about 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours and there is
chance that Frances could again become a hurricane.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the
center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb...28.82 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding along with large and dangerous
battering waves continue along the North Florida East Coast but
should gradually subside. Storm surge flooding of up to 5 feet above
normal levels is expected to subside on Monday. Along the southwest
Florida coast...storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal
tide levels is expected south of the path of Frances. Storm surge
flooding of up to 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels is expected
along the northeast Gulf Coast of Florida to the north of the path
of the storm.
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...
are expected over portions of the southeastern United States along
Frances wide path.
Isolated tornadoes are possible overnight over portions of southern
Georgia and northern Florida.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...28.3 N... 82.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 976 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.
Forecaster Lawrence
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 05, 2004
...Frances remains a large tropical storm...is moving offshore to
the Gulf of Mexico...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwest Gulf Coast
of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Destin.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southwest coast
of Florida from south of Anna Maria Island to Ocean Reef including
all of the Florida Keys...Florida Bay and the Dry Tortugas...and
for the East Coast of Florida and Georgia from north of Jupiter
Inlet northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia...including Lake
Okeechobee.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Frances was
located near latitude 28.3 north...longitude 82.7 west or about
25 miles north-northwest of Tampa Florida.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph and a turn
toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. The
center of Frances is at the Gulf Coast and is forecast to move over
the waters of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on monay and then
move inland over the Florida Panhandle in about 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours and there is
chance that Frances could again become a hurricane.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the
center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb...28.82 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding along with large and dangerous
battering waves continue along the North Florida East Coast but
should gradually subside. Storm surge flooding of up to 5 feet above
normal levels is expected to subside on Monday. Along the southwest
Florida coast...storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal
tide levels is expected south of the path of Frances. Storm surge
flooding of up to 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels is expected
along the northeast Gulf Coast of Florida to the north of the path
of the storm.
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...
are expected over portions of the southeastern United States along
Frances wide path.
Isolated tornadoes are possible overnight over portions of southern
Georgia and northern Florida.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...28.3 N... 82.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 976 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.
Forecaster Lawrence
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-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Frances Discussion Number 49
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 05, 2004
Frances is maintaining well-organized convective banding and
tropical storm force winds over a large area. A 56-kt sustained
wind observation from the St Augustine C-man at 22z suggests that
maximum winds may still be near 55 kt. The central pressure has
also stayed rather low and is estimated at 976 mb based on a 977.7
mb observation near Tampa.
The initial motion estimate is 300/07 based on radar and surface
observations. The global track model guidance remains in agreement
on a gradual turn toward the north and continued slow forward speed
through 48 hours as a trough in the westerlies erodes the ridge to
the north of Frances. Acceleration toward the northeast follows
after 48 hours as the storm is caught up and absorbed within the
westerlies. The official forecast track is just a little slower
than the previous advisory and is in good agreement with a
consensus of the global models and with the FSU superensemble
forecast.
The center is near the coast just north of Tampa. The forecast
track moves Frances over the water of the northeastern Gulf on
Monday and then inland over the Florida Panhandle by 24 hours.
There is not a lot of guidance support for Frances reaching
hurricane force over the water...but the offical forecast is to 65
kt in 24 hours as a course of least regret.
Forecaster Lawrence
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 06/0300z 28.3n 82.7w 55 kt
12hr VT 06/1200z 28.8n 83.7w 60 kt...over water
24hr VT 07/0000z 30.0n 85.0w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 07/1200z 31.6n 85.6w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 08/0000z 33.0n 85.7w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 09/0000z 37.0n 84.0w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 10/0000z 41.5n 79.0w 25 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 11/0000z...absorbed by a front
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 05, 2004
Frances is maintaining well-organized convective banding and
tropical storm force winds over a large area. A 56-kt sustained
wind observation from the St Augustine C-man at 22z suggests that
maximum winds may still be near 55 kt. The central pressure has
also stayed rather low and is estimated at 976 mb based on a 977.7
mb observation near Tampa.
The initial motion estimate is 300/07 based on radar and surface
observations. The global track model guidance remains in agreement
on a gradual turn toward the north and continued slow forward speed
through 48 hours as a trough in the westerlies erodes the ridge to
the north of Frances. Acceleration toward the northeast follows
after 48 hours as the storm is caught up and absorbed within the
westerlies. The official forecast track is just a little slower
than the previous advisory and is in good agreement with a
consensus of the global models and with the FSU superensemble
forecast.
The center is near the coast just north of Tampa. The forecast
track moves Frances over the water of the northeastern Gulf on
Monday and then inland over the Florida Panhandle by 24 hours.
There is not a lot of guidance support for Frances reaching
hurricane force over the water...but the offical forecast is to 65
kt in 24 hours as a course of least regret.
Forecaster Lawrence
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 06/0300z 28.3n 82.7w 55 kt
12hr VT 06/1200z 28.8n 83.7w 60 kt...over water
24hr VT 07/0000z 30.0n 85.0w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 07/1200z 31.6n 85.6w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 08/0000z 33.0n 85.7w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 09/0000z 37.0n 84.0w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 10/0000z 41.5n 79.0w 25 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 11/0000z...absorbed by a front
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