12Z ECMWF: Grazes PR, *North* of Hispanola, right off Cuba,

[calidoug]

Looks like the FL Keys...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4090512!!/

So much for the fish stories....

[canegrl04]

This model had Frances hitting Florida several days before she reached the Bahamas I believe.

[Anonymous]

IF it did that it would hbe absolutely catastrophic for PR, Cuba, and Hispanola. Cant forget about the Leewards either.

[Canelaw99]

calidoug - Maybe if Ivan doesn't know, he won't behave...

[wzrgirl1]

Now who is making predictions calidoug........now you have the keys thinking they are getting hit.......who is being irresposible now........give me a break

[btsgmdad]

The only good models are the ones that take Ivan away from land.

[calidoug]

I'm reporting what a particular model is predicting. You know-- basis in reality, not a Miss Cleo "hunch".

[wzrgirl1]

Nobody said ANYTHING about the florida keys yet........except ummm.....you...........anything can turn it and if you look at the weather patterns their is a forecasted trough that is supposed to be hanging around...just because it is aiming at the keys now doesn't mean it will hit there.........so we all make predicitons and have discussions and you don't like when someone second guesses you so maybe you ought to think twice about second guessing others..........we all like to discuss weather systems...can we just drop it??

[calidoug]

"their is a forecasted trough"

First of all, it's "there".

Second of all, did you look at the model link? That frame shows a storm at 23N, 78W, with a ridge to the north.

Third of all, there is no forecasted trough.

Fourth of all, you haven't cited a single model indicating a fish track.

Yes, indeed, why don't we drop it.

[wzrgirl1]

That more general fact (rather than a precise path) is more important, as it largely rules out a fish.[/quote] -this is your quote from another post........ (that more general fact) makes a lot of sense huh?

Yes, indeed, why don't we drop it. (this is a question....you need a question mark not a period)

I can play this game too!

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

looks like a few models here have it turning

[calidoug]

The GFS has initialization troubles, and was discounted by the NHC.

But that actually proves my original point-- seeing even that somewhat stale and incomplete model map, no one in their right mind would suggest that it is clear Ivan is a fish.

[wzrgirl1]

You are right.......I am wrong cali..........the hurricane will hit the keys and not be a fish "according to the models". I am not in my right mind and you are. Let's revisit this in a week. I am done.........have fun with this post as I will not even dignify it with reading it or posting from it anymore.

[SwampDawg]

The only good models are the ones that take Ivan away from land.

Good Model????

[AL Chili Pepper]

For what it's worth, if I had to put money on a model based purely on what I had seen, it'd be the ECMWF. And right now, well...have you seen the GFS? It barely even picks up on Ivan.

[LaBreeze]

What is the ECMWF saying, Al Chili Pepper?

[ericinmia]

What is the ECMWF saying, Al Chili Pepper?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4090512!!/


It takes it just over puerto rico, then just north of hispanola, then just north of eastern cuba.
-Eric

[AL Chili Pepper]

What is the ECMWF saying, Al Chili Pepper?

It's got Ivan skirting the north central Cuban coast south of the Bahamas.

I got interested in the previous forecast tracks of the ECMWF and went back to their web site and checked them out. With the exception of the Sept 1 12Z run, which had it going into SC, the ECMWF did a very good job. Almost, if not all, the runs had Frances moving across the Bahamas, across central FL, and into the NE Gulf. Even as far back as August 30.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4090512!!/