Given the GFS's horrendous performance with Frances and now Ivan, I am wondering if it is time for the GFS to be changed some how?
I mean the ECWMF is vastly superior for these intense Atlantic storms.
Anybody have any ideas on how the GFS could be improved?
Should the GFS be changed somehow?
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senorpepr
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Re: Should the GFS be changed somehow?
jason0509 wrote:Given the GFS's horrendous performance with Frances and now Ivan, I am wondering if it is time for the GFS to be changed some how?
I mean the ECWMF is vastly superior for these intense Atlantic storms.
Anybody have any ideas on how the GFS could be improved?
My suggestion is to NOT attempt to improve it. GFS is a fairly-descent mid-latitude model. Tinkering with it's performance for a better tropical solution will hurt it's ability to handle baroclinic systems, like it was made to do.
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FungusMoldlyColdcuts
Re: Should the GFS be changed somehow?
senorpepr wrote:jason0509 wrote:Given the GFS's horrendous performance with Frances and now Ivan, I am wondering if it is time for the GFS to be changed some how?
I mean the ECWMF is vastly superior for these intense Atlantic storms.
Anybody have any ideas on how the GFS could be improved?
My suggestion is to NOT attempt to improve it. GFS is a fairly-descent mid-latitude model. Tinkering with it's performance for a better tropical solution will hurt it's ability to handle baroclinic systems, like it was made to do.
OK. Good point but....then should it be used as a system to predict the tropics at all then? Maybe it should stick to baroclinic systems only.
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wxman57
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My observation was that the GFS was far superior to the ECMWF with Frances and Charley. The ECMWF was all over the place (a lot more than the GFS was), taking Frances out to sea to the north or west to New Orleans. The GFS was consistent in showing a track just north of the islands and west into the eastern Gulf.
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But what about these runs that showed a North Carolina hit for Frances, and then S.C, and then Goergia and then Florida and then back again, though? That was not a consistent performance either for the GFS. ECWMF did hit the nail on the head about a Florida landfall quite consistently, as I recall though.
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FungusMoldlyColdcuts
The euro model was 2 days too fast. and was all over the board, within 3 days of landfall.
the GFS was incorrect in a series of 3 or 4 runs 00z-12z for a few days due to a siginificant error in the strength of the subtropical ridge and it's impacts on the synoptics.
At least the GFS did a fine job with the shorter range and timing.
the GFS was incorrect in a series of 3 or 4 runs 00z-12z for a few days due to a siginificant error in the strength of the subtropical ridge and it's impacts on the synoptics.
At least the GFS did a fine job with the shorter range and timing.
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