Now That Frances Is In the Gulf of Mexico...

[Sean in New Orleans]

I think that the system will make landfall around Apalachicola...so what computer model is closest? These poor models have the hardest times with tropical systmes, I'm curious to see which one is right. The models do so much better in winter, IMO.

[~SirCane]

I wonder why there aren't at least TS warnings West of Destin for a storm this BIG? Maybe by morning.

[wxman57]

Yeah, there's still a good area of moderate showers in the Tampa area. Tops are pretty low, though. Maybe a few more inches of rain in some areas. Chances of any more tornadoes are minimal.

[Wnghs2007]

494
URNT12 KNHC 060230
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/0230Z
B. 28 DEG 26 MIN N
82 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2881 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 092 DEG 54 KT
G. 351 DEG 32 NM
H. 980 MB
I. 12 C/ 3077 M
J. 12 C/ 3069 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF963 3206A FRANCES OB 11
MAX FL WIND 54 KT N QUAD 0217Z. POOR RADAR PRESENTATION.

wxman57 is correct. but a its a little stronger than he said when the Flight Level Winds are reduced to the surface.

[wxman57]

Buoys offshore are still reporting a few 35kt winds, but nothing really associated with the center. With a storm as disorganized as Frances, those 54kt FL winds probably won't reduce to the surface at the standard 90%. Here's a 3Z sfc plot. I did find 2 buoys (or a buoy and a ship) still reporting 35kt winds offshore (circled in red), so I guess that Frances would qualify as a TS based upon that, but a TS needs convection at the center to be called a TS. But all inland winds are now 25kts or less. That's about what the Panhandle will see tonight except for any thunderstorms that move on through.

Perhaps I should go to bed before I say any more stupid things? "Who cares" (with respect to landfall in the FL panhandle) was a poor choice of words on my part. That's not what I meant. Replace that with "where the center makes landfall is not so important any more". One could also argue that the northern part of the broad open center has already made landfall in the Panhandle. The thunderstorm near Apalachicola is part of the northern ring of the center. The southern side has more showers, could produce a few inches of rain.

I really have been working 12-16 hr days for 2 weeks now and I'm quite tired.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sfcplot.gif">

[SwampDawg]

Yeah....just get some rest. Things happen

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

The wise man is only as wise as the stupid things he never said.

[Stormcenter]

Convection on the increase especially on the east side.
May not mean nothing but it's happening. Still looks
to be moving slightly north of due west. IMO

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... ktbw.shtml

[FritzPaul]

From past experience with Frances, everytime the bulk of storms rotate on the south side she jogs westerly, and when they're on the north side she jogs more northwest.

Disclaimer: Please listen to official reports from the NHC and local Wx stations as the above statement is based purely on speculation from my untrained observations.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Frances appears to be moving west a pretty decent clip, IMO.

[rtd2]

NOT AT ALL SAYING THIS IS A REMOTE CHANCE AND THIS IS APPLES TO ORANGES ....but this time of night and lack of tracking reminds me of OPAL!