what is everyone's opinion?

[wzrgirl1]

What do you think as to what will happen with Ivan? Anyone think a trough will pick him up? Think it will be a Florida storm again or anywhere along the east coast? Think it will trek into the GOM? Curious as to everyone's opinions.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Nobody knows...I posted a similar thread a little bit ago and nobody wants to take a shot at this thing yet, apparently.

[MWatkins]

What do you think as to what will happen with Ivan? Anyone think a trough will pick him up? Think it will be a Florida storm again or anywhere along the east coast? Think it will trek into the GOM? Curious as to everyone's opinions.

Based on the latest model runs and just looking at some trends...I am starting to lean toward a recurvature solution east of Florida and then hopefully out to sea.

I am not sold on this solution yet...there are some questions about how strong the ridge will be when Frances exits...but I am not sold on a repeat of what happened last week...actually I will be watching the euro solution very closely over the coming days.

No one should let their guard down along the US east coast...yet...as there is time to watch this here. But the folks in the Caribbean should get ready.

After tomorrow's synoptic mission I'll have a better feel one way or the other...but right now...I am hoping that after this exits the caribbean we have fish...and not fish paste.

MW

[ncsandman]

To early to tell yet. I hope it goes back to Africa. We sure dont want it here in the Carolinas, and I know the people of Florida dont want it. Im ready for winter, and hopefully see a little snow!!

[HurricaneQueen]

Mike:

Glad to see you are posting again. I assume you have regained your electricity (I think I remember reading you were about to lose it a couple of days ago) and suffered no serious ill effects from Frances.

Lynn

[MWatkins]

Mike:

Glad to see you are posting again. I assume you have regained your electricity (I think I remember reading you were about to lose it a couple of days ago) and suffered no serious ill effects from Frances.

Lynn

Hi Lynn!

It was up and down all of yesterday but back to normal today. LOTS of trees down and such but very little structual damage where I am.

We were...of course...very lucky.

Thanks again...

MW

[obxhurricane]

Mr Watkins is right...recurvature after the Islands is most likely...IMO anyway. But as he says...everyone needs to stay on gaurd along the EC.

Good night...

[Sean in New Orleans]

What do you all think will cause the recurvature to the North or Northwest with the system at such a low latitude right now?

[obxhurricane]

The western flank of the ridge will weaken. Simple as that.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The western flank of the ridge will weaken. Simple as that.

So you think there will be a poleward pull at that latitude--or what else do you foresee with the system heading more North? Just curious.

[MWatkins]

-removed-.

Seriously.

Well...maybe not so much...I am trying to buy the GFS solution that the mean steering layer will open up bigtime and allow the hurricane to get pulled up at a rather sharp angle...which is not all that uncommon for this time of year.

The problem is that the GFS wanted to do the same thing with Frances for a long time and it never transpired...to the point that I had myself questioning aloud my understanding of synoptic meteorology.

There is time to watch this...the other globals will come in within the hour...the 00Z NOGAPS is almost done so we can see where the GFS stands against the other globals. My guess is that it will be a rightward outlier.

MW

[obxhurricane]

I foresee a scenario where Ivan tracks across DR/PR then stalls or slows to a crawl East of or near the Bahamas. After that is purely specualtion...but it seems possible the ridge may break down completely...allowing a seaward motion. We'll see...for now I'd say folks in the Islands and PR/DR need to be on gaurd.