Dynamics and Dangerous Hurricane Ivan..

[Sean in New Orleans]

When looking at the big picture of this dangerous hurricane, what dynamics do you guys see coming into play as to where this system will wind up...what can happen? With such a low latitude, what does the NHC see that makes it think this storm will suddenly veer more northerly? What components out there could steer it out to sea? What is there that will protect the Gulf of Mexico? What will send it to the Gulf of Mexico? It's time to start thinking, IMO. Ivan is moving at a good clip and by weeks end could be in the plans for many people. Here's the latest satellite of Hurricane Ivan.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[ROCK]

I would like to hear opinions as well. Ive been hearing FL, East coast, Fish with Ivan and no hint of GOM track. But I believe I heard the northwest track after 3 days was due to: A) the weakening of the ridge caused by Frances (we heard this with Gaston and Hermine and look where Fran wound up) and B) large storms track poleward. Two things I would like to hear commented on is A) Ivan is moving at 21mph could the models be too far north and to slow and B) low latitude storms climitology wise have a better chance of making a GOM track. I have heard nothing about this....

Anyway my 2 cents...