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--TFCTSU--
NEMAS-TFC
Tropical Storm Update
National Environmental and Meteorological Association
09:15 PM EDT Sunday, September 05, 2004
Hurricane Ivan
**Current position and forecast track**
Latest position and intensity:
10.6 North, 48.5 West - Highest sustained winds: 115 knots/ 130 mph.
12 hour forecast:
11.5 North, 52.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 120 knots/ 140 mph .
24 hour forecast:
12.5 North, 55.2 West - Highest sustained winds: 125 knots/145 mph.
36 hour forecast:
13.5 North, 58.7 West - Highest sustained winds: 125 knots/ 145 mph.
48 hour forecast:
14.5 North, 61.5 West - Highest sustained winds: 115 knots/ 130 mph.
72 hour forecast:
17.0 North, 66.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 100 knots/ 115 mph.
Storm Discussion:
Ivan has undergone tremendous strengthening today...at a very low latitude. Current
wind speed is up to 115 knots, an increase from 75 knots early this morning. It is
likely that Ivan will begin to level off a bit...but some further strengthening is
indicated in the forecast as shear will remain low for the next 24-36 hours. Beyond
that time there are some signs that there will be some upper level SW
shear...provided by a large upper low currently located over the ERN Caribbean.
Given satellite trends of the fast movement of Ivan...and the nearly steady state of
the ULL...it seems certain there will be some shear affecting the storm late in
the period. Thus...after some further strengthening the next 24 hours...the forecast
will call for some weakening by 48 and 72 hours.
The forecast track has been shifted east of the previous advisory. Using the new 00Z
model suite the forecast track is a blend of the BAMMS/A98E/UKMET. The entire
forecast suite is shifted well east of previous runs...and taking into account the
aforementioned ULL...and the forecast weakening of the subtropical ridge...this
further north forecast makes good sense at this time. Our forecast implies a threat
to WRN Puerto Rico/ERN DR in about 84-96 hours.
OVERMAN
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Evening forecast for Ivan...repost.
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obxhurricane
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Re: Evening forecast for Ivan...repost.
Why these 3 models to form your concensus, two tropical models (the shallow BAM for a strong system seems puzzling, and the A98E is not the first model I would pick) and one global?
obxhurricane wrote:the forecast track is a blend of the BAMMS/A98E/UKMET
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