Mobile BAY!!! opinions please!

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rtd2
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Mobile BAY!!! opinions please!

#1 Postby rtd2 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 11:57 pm

Has been my 2nd L/F for a couple days... if you look at the vapor, frances' clouds are being stretched west, the vapor doesn't show any lifting on the north west side of frances. Could frances go west, then maybe wsw before it gets pulled north by the trough. the radar shows due west now. Well maybe 271*(LOL)...WWWNW!!! this might put myy 2nd L/F trackback in the game? Either way I DONT see alot of time for strengthning!
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... ktbw.shtml
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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Sean in New Orleans
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#2 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sun Sep 05, 2004 11:59 pm

It's possible..will know much more in a matter of hours, IMO.
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Re: Mobile BAY!!! opinions please!

#3 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:15 am

rtd2 wrote:Has been my 2nd L/F for a couple days... if you look at the vapor, frances' clouds are being stretched west, the vapor doesn't show any lifting on the north west side of frances. Could frances go west, then maybe wsw before it gets pulled north by the trough. the radar shows due west now. Well maybe 271*(LOL)...WWWNW!!! this might put myy 2nd L/F trackback in the game? Either way I DONT see alot of time for strengthning!
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... ktbw.shtml
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


If she remains on primarily westward course and same speed then she will have enough time to reorganize IMO. I'm NOT saying it will happen though.
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Re: Mobile BAY!!! opinions please!

#4 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:17 am

rtd2 wrote:Has been my 2nd L/F for a couple days... if you look at the vapor, frances' clouds are being stretched west, the vapor doesn't show any lifting on the north west side of frances. Could frances go west, then maybe wsw before it gets pulled north by the trough. the radar shows due west now. Well maybe 271*(LOL)...WWWNW!!! this might put myy 2nd L/F trackback in the game? Either way I DONT see alot of time for strengthning!
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... ktbw.shtml
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Have to agree some...Frances is a shell of it's former self and probably won't have enough time to organize. Probably comes in as a 60 knot tropical storm...hopefully nothing more than that.

MW
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#5 Postby rtd2 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:18 am

Ive never been any good at strength forecast but I would think nothing rapid like...OPAL!
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#6 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:30 am

Convection is on the increase and looks a little better organized so MAYBE Frances wants to go out swinging?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... ktbw.shtml
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Re: Mobile BAY!!! opinions please!

#7 Postby mobilebay » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:43 am

rtd2 wrote:Has been my 2nd L/F for a couple days... if you look at the vapor, frances' clouds are being stretched west, the vapor doesn't show any lifting on the north west side of frances. Could frances go west, then maybe wsw before it gets pulled north by the trough. the radar shows due west now. Well maybe 271*(LOL)...WWWNW!!! this might put myy 2nd L/F trackback in the game? Either way I DONT see alot of time for strengthning!
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... ktbw.shtml
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Well I think the key for us at this point is if she keeps moving west at this clip. If she stalls again it will not come this for west. However, none of the models I've seen moved her this fast . noticed some models(ETA,NOGAPS,GFDL) want to push her further west after landfall. Right now it is just wait and see. The fast motion recently maybe that the models have once again done a poor job on judging the ridge strength.
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#8 Postby rtd2 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:01 am

the models have screwed up Frances for several days! especially the Ridge strength that was suppose to turn her NW TO NNW...as you remember us lefties (w-wnw...wwwnw LOL) called the bluff on that!
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#9 Postby mobilebay » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:05 am

rtd2 wrote:the models have screwed up Frances for several days! especially the Ridge strength that was suppose to turn her NW TO NNW...as you remember us lefties (w-wnw...wwwnw LOL) called the bluff on that!

What I don't understand is the NHC said on the last advisory the APP. bouy reported TS force winds(that for northwest of the center). But have no TS warnings from destin westwerd. It goes from a hurricane warning to nothing. :roll:
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#10 Postby rtd2 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:09 am

They amaze me and do opposite of what us novices think and end up pulling it off~ they nailed Charley and others but they are over due for a boo-boo? :eek:
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dennis1x1

#11 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:18 am

no...but you can keep hoping!!

;)
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#12 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:42 am

Fla panhandle strike, doubt anything past Panama city.
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