forcast models

[BUD]

for forcasting where hurricanes will go. how accurate are they and how does the nhc get its forcast tracks for three and five days.

[hurricane_lover]

again bud, I am from NMB. I grew up there. Might I know you?

[SwampDawg]

Great question!! I was kind of curious about this myself.

[MWatkins]

for forcasting where hurricanes will go. how accurate are they and how does the nhc get its forcast tracks for three and five days.

That is a very hard question to answer because every situation is different. For example...historically the GFS has done very well...but if you would have used it with frances exclusively...you would have gotten people in FL in all sorts of trouble.

Actually...the best model is actually a concensus of the GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS and AVN (now GFS) called the GUNA or CONU. This blend is the only result that can beat the NHC straight up...and usually you will see their forecast right on top of this CONU track.

Of course...they dont explicity publish that paticular model.

Knowing which one to apply...implicitly...is the art of tropcial meteorology IMHO.

Of course...over the medium range...it is hard to argue against the euro once it has a consistent solution over several runs.

MW

[ericinmia]

for forcasting where hurricanes will go. how accurate are they and how does the nhc get its forcast tracks for three and five days.

They take the different model runs (with strengths in different areas), and the synoptic data from the atmosphere, trends, history, and global weather patterns (current/predicted/past) and they make their best guess as to where it could be.

For Strength they have to main models; the gfdl and the SHIPS, with either or being the better model for predicting strength based on the type of system, and surrounding weather patterns. Then using that data, they generate their own predictions.

Hope that helped... it is late, and i have been having a restless week. Please excuse the crudeness of that explanation...
-Eric

[Sean in New Orleans]

Most models do much better in the Winter, IMO. They all still have a fairly tough time with tropical systems--but, they are getting better.