Hey Now! 00Z GFDL....

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MWatkins
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Hey Now! 00Z GFDL....

#1 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:37 am

Right in line with the 00Z NOGAPS. And yet another argument against my recurvature bias for this system. Dang it...come on UKMET!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGQLM.0409060532

MW
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ericinmia
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#2 Postby ericinmia » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:47 am

Damn...

This is what has me not liking it...
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)


108 20.8 74.9 322./11.7
114 21.8 75.8 320./12.3
120 22.6 76.6 314./10.8
126 23.2 77.4 308./ 9.8



as it is approaching florida through the bahamas after passing through cuba, it begins to turn more westwardly, and slow down. uh-oh
That course would take it (at least) into dade/broward county -> south.
-Eric
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#3 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:49 am

And it crosses Haiti more to the W (71, 17.5 ) --> (73.4, 19.1), instead of right across the middle.
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#4 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:50 am

Yep...and oh by the way...thanks for nothing UKMET. All this will do is pull the model concensus westward...

HURRICANE IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 10.5N 48.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 06.09.2004 10.5N 48.3W STRONG
12UTC 06.09.2004 11.5N 52.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2004 12.7N 55.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2004 13.4N 59.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2004 14.5N 62.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2004 15.2N 65.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2004 16.3N 68.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2004 17.7N 72.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2004 18.6N 73.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.09.2004 20.2N 75.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2004 21.4N 76.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2004 22.1N 78.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2004 22.8N 79.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

MW
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#5 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:12 am

SF mentioned a huge western trough and a strong eastern ridge in response. How will Ivan curve northeast if that pans out?
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#6 Postby TS Zack » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:01 am

Models are trending West. Except are great Tropical Models which all run off are friend GFS which has a Tropical Wave moving North.
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