2AM Ivan: Strengthening. Cat5 possible in 12-24 hrs

[calidoug]

50.6W, 10.7N That's a bit south of forecast track....this thing might pass SOUTH of Barbados.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0548.shtml?

WTNT34 KNHC 060548
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST MON SEP 06 2004

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 625
MILES...1010 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AND IS CURRENTLY A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... IF THIS INTENSIFICATION PHASE CONTINUES...
IVAN WILL APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...10.7 N... 50.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/HOLWEG

[Sanibel]

Looks to be low-tracking for now under a strong Atlantic ridge.

Will we see the track lowered tomorrow?

[Matthew5]

The thing is is why do they say it is STRENGTHEN? While they don't rise the winds???

[ericinmia]

The thing is is why do they say it is STRENGTHEN? While they don't rise the winds???

Possibly...

Right now they have no proof of winds, and becoming cat 5 is major thing. Recon flies in tomorrow, so that answers that.

The storm could be re-organizing, which it seems to be doing. no wind increase however it is strengthening.

etc... sorry i'm gettin too tired
-Eric

[bahamaswx]

Strengthening was reflected by the pressure drop.

[Thunder44]

The thing is is why do they say it is STRENGTHEN? While they don't rise the winds???

That's exactly what I was wondering. They been saying that the last two advisories.