12:00 Models for Ivan,955 mbs

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cycloneye
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12:00 Models for Ivan,955 mbs

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:07 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040906 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040906 1200 040907 0000 040907 1200 040908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 52.5W 11.7N 55.7W 12.3N 58.8W 13.2N 61.8W
BAMM 11.0N 52.5W 11.6N 56.1W 12.1N 59.7W 12.8N 63.0W
A98E 11.0N 52.5W 11.7N 56.2W 12.5N 59.5W 13.3N 62.5W
LBAR 11.0N 52.5W 11.8N 56.0W 12.4N 59.7W 13.0N 63.5W
SHIP 110KTS 112KTS 117KTS 121KTS
DSHP 110KTS 112KTS 117KTS 121KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040908 1200 040909 1200 040910 1200 040911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 64.7W 16.7N 69.8W 19.0N 73.4W 21.3N 75.2W
BAMM 13.6N 66.2W 15.7N 71.7W 17.4N 75.5W 19.3N 77.5W
A98E 13.9N 64.9W 16.0N 69.0W 18.4N 72.2W 21.3N 74.3W
LBAR 14.0N 67.3W 16.4N 73.4W 18.4N 75.7W 21.8N 77.7W
SHIP 123KTS 119KTS 116KTS 110KTS
DSHP 123KTS 119KTS 73KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 52.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 48.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 45.1W
WNDCUR = 110KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 955MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 100NM

Pressure is up from earlier.
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#2 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:09 am

Ivan is looking a little sick on IR. That's a good thing!
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#3 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:11 am

Looks like Ivan wants to pay a visit to Cuba:

Image
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#4 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:14 am

Cuba visit is bad news for Florida,too :(
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#5 Postby Aquawind » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:14 am

I am so sick of hearing "shift to the left" ..ackk put that on the list of evil and unwanted phrases somebody..
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#6 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:17 am

How often does the plotter model come out?
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#7 Postby rainstorm » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:18 am

i want a shift into south america, hehe. florida or the states can do without any more hits
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#8 Postby AussieMark » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:22 am

Ivan looking sick is that a good thing or bad thing.

He has lots of water to pass before he reaches land masses right.
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#9 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:29 am

IMAGINE *IT* wrote:How often does the plotter model come out?


Every 6 hours. The next runs will be sometime this afternoon(2-3pm EDT)
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#10 Postby Cookiely » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:34 am

Isn't the hurricane hunter supposed to give info at 2pm? Is that right?
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#11 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:59 am

Cookiely wrote:Isn't the hurricane hunter supposed to give info at 2pm? Is that right?


Yes. We should know the exact winds and pressure by the 5pm advisory. A research plane is going to check the enviornment around Ivan this evening to help with the model runs.
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#12 Postby frankthetank » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:06 am

Brent...where does that plane fly from? PR or St CRoix? or all the way from the states?
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#13 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:08 am

If the NHC track verifies, Hispaniola will not be much of a problem for Ivan.
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#14 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:10 am

Seems to me,as low as Ivan is tracking right now,models will be reflecting a GOM entry later today.If Ivan doesn't crash into SA
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#15 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:13 am

frankthetank wrote:Brent...where does that plane fly from? PR or St CRoix? or all the way from the states?


Might be the U.S.

2. HURRICANE IVAN
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 06/1800,07/0000Z A. 07/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0109A IVAN B. NOAA9 0209A IVAN
C. 06/1400Z C. 06/1730Z
D. 12.N 54.1W D. N/A
E. 06/1700Z TO 07/0030Z E. N/A
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

Because the NOAA flight is longer. See the difference? 4 hours for recon and 6 1/2 hours for the NOAA plane.
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