What is going on with Ivan's structure?

x-y-no · #1 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:53 am

That blob to the southwest still persists. Overnight, it looks like his center of circulation moved faster than the convection it was under (which would account for the disappearance of the visible eye) and is now nearly at the dividing line or the two convections.

So is he finally going to be able to wrap that blob into his circulation now?

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:57 am

Probably has something to do with his fast-motion. It's incredible he's even been able to strengthen so much moving so quickly.

Derek Ortt · #3 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:59 am

fast motion in no way precludes development. That is an urban legend. How about good old fashioned SAL intrusion, just like what happened to Georges

#4 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:59 am

This will be yet another learning experience for us.

Tip · #5 Postby **Tip** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:01 am

There is obvious continued weakening of this storm from the 8 am forecast. It looks to be falling apart. Should be downgraded again.

lilbump3000 · #6 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:03 am

More than likely it might be downgraded to a Cat. 1 storm. The structure still looks a little decent on visible loop.

#7 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:13 am

I do not think this is a cat 1 storm at all not with 950mb . This appears to be a reorganizing monster. I hope it is a cat 1 for the islanders sake, but don't count on that. Recon will confirm. This is a monster in the making I am afraid.

x-y-no · #8 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:36 am

Lowpressure wrote:I do not think this is a cat 1 storm at all not with 950mb . This appears to be a reorganizing monster. I hope it is a cat 1 for the islanders sake, but don't count on that. Recon will confirm. This is a monster in the making I am afraid.

Looking at the last couple of visible frames, I agree. The center is starting to look a bit better, and there's a hint of a visible eye again.

Sanibel · #9 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:24 am

Edit: Sorry Derek. See you already wrote that. Good to see someone who knows what they are seeing...

I believe Ivan to be encountering a flow off the landmass of South America.

The ridge is so strong and is pushing him so far south that he has run into a South American air flow that is different than the CV oceanic airmass.

This could be bad because he'll preserve intensification for closer to land when he overcomes it...

What is going on with Ivan's structure?

What is going on with Ivan's structure?

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