Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 17
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on September 06, 2004
...Dangerous hurricane headed for the Windward Islands...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of Barbados has issued a
Hurricane Warning for Barbados...St. Vincent and The Grenadines.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of St. Lucia has issued a
Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of Trinidad has issued a
Hurricane Warning for Grenada and its dependencies and a Tropical
Storm Warning for Trinidad.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Tobago.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Martinique.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Ivan.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 11.2 north...longitude 53.4 west or about 435 miles...
700 km...east-southeast of Barbados.
Ivan is moving toward the west near 22 mph ...35 km/hr...and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24
hours. On this track the center of the hurricane will be
approaching the islands in the warning area tomorrow morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is possible during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb...28.20 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...11.2 N... 53.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 955 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
AST.
Forecaster Pasch
11am Ivan-125 mph winds, Hurricane Warnings issued
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Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 17
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 06, 2004
A small eye is evident on the visible imagery. There is a small CDO
and somewhat ragged-looking banding features. Estimates of the
data T-number range from 4.5 to 5.5 so there is considerable
uncertainty in the current intensity. Since the hurricane appeared
to be so intense last night...we are holding the wind speed at 110
kt in general agreement with Dvorak rules. An Air Force hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ivan around 18z and
this should provide a much better estimate of the strength of this
hurricane. The SHIPS guidance shows some slight westerly shear in
the environment of Ivan...probably due to a weak upper-level low
over the east-central Caribbean. However that model also shows
intensification of Ivan. Since the shear is not expected to become
very high...the official forecast also indicates intensification.
The intensity prediction at days 4 and 5 has the added uncertainty
of how Ivan will interact with the land masses of Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba.
Initial motion estimate is slightly north of due west...280/19.
There has been little change to the track forecast philosphy. Ivan
is embedded in a well-defined easterly steering current and should
remain so over the next few days. Late in the forecast
period...the motion of the hurricane will depend on the strength
and positions of a ridge over the extreme southwest Atlantic and a
trough over the east-central United States. It is still to early
to confidently predict whether Ivan will be south of...over...or
north of Cuba around 5 days. The current NHC track forecast is
very close to the latest dynamical model consensus. It should be
noted that the latest FSU superensemble run is to the south of the
official track beyond 3 days.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for several of the Windward
Islands.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 06/1500z 11.2n 53.4w 110 kt
12hr VT 07/0000z 11.8n 56.1w 115 kt
24hr VT 07/1200z 12.7n 59.5w 115 kt
36hr VT 08/0000z 13.7n 62.7w 120 kt
48hr VT 08/1200z 15.0n 65.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 09/1200z 17.5n 71.0w 125 kt
96hr VT 10/1200z 20.5n 75.0w 75 kt...inland
120hr VT 11/1200z 23.5n 78.5w 90 kt...over water
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 06, 2004
A small eye is evident on the visible imagery. There is a small CDO
and somewhat ragged-looking banding features. Estimates of the
data T-number range from 4.5 to 5.5 so there is considerable
uncertainty in the current intensity. Since the hurricane appeared
to be so intense last night...we are holding the wind speed at 110
kt in general agreement with Dvorak rules. An Air Force hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ivan around 18z and
this should provide a much better estimate of the strength of this
hurricane. The SHIPS guidance shows some slight westerly shear in
the environment of Ivan...probably due to a weak upper-level low
over the east-central Caribbean. However that model also shows
intensification of Ivan. Since the shear is not expected to become
very high...the official forecast also indicates intensification.
The intensity prediction at days 4 and 5 has the added uncertainty
of how Ivan will interact with the land masses of Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba.
Initial motion estimate is slightly north of due west...280/19.
There has been little change to the track forecast philosphy. Ivan
is embedded in a well-defined easterly steering current and should
remain so over the next few days. Late in the forecast
period...the motion of the hurricane will depend on the strength
and positions of a ridge over the extreme southwest Atlantic and a
trough over the east-central United States. It is still to early
to confidently predict whether Ivan will be south of...over...or
north of Cuba around 5 days. The current NHC track forecast is
very close to the latest dynamical model consensus. It should be
noted that the latest FSU superensemble run is to the south of the
official track beyond 3 days.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for several of the Windward
Islands.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 06/1500z 11.2n 53.4w 110 kt
12hr VT 07/0000z 11.8n 56.1w 115 kt
24hr VT 07/1200z 12.7n 59.5w 115 kt
36hr VT 08/0000z 13.7n 62.7w 120 kt
48hr VT 08/1200z 15.0n 65.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 09/1200z 17.5n 71.0w 125 kt
96hr VT 10/1200z 20.5n 75.0w 75 kt...inland
120hr VT 11/1200z 23.5n 78.5w 90 kt...over water
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