Ivan Intensifying Again

Website · #21 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:43 am

Derek Ortt wrote:The chances are better for someone winning a fight, unarmed, with a salt water crocodile than there is of this missing land completely

#22 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:45 am

x-y-no wrote:
MWatkins wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:leaning towards disorganization or tight pressure gradient?

Tight gradient...although the good visible but shoddy ir presentations suggest some disorganization...some conflicting signals here.

I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

MW

I see a hint of that tiny eye in the last IR frame. And he's wrapping in the convection to the W and SW.

Yeah yeah. I see it. It's probably not disorganized at all...the point (yours i think) that the amorphous blob out in front is turning into a well-developed band is also a sign.

Just checked in with the 12Z GFS and the concern is the steering high to the north is going to break down and allow this to come up...for selfish reasons I'm hoping this scoots into the Gulf...but the recurve scenario I was leaning toward yesterday is now gone I think.

MW

Matthew5 · #23 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:46 am

I think the best case is for this not to hit Florida! Lets have it hit some where else :grrr:

#24 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:47 am

The amorphous blob still isn't visibly connected to the CDO. Perhaps that is why the convection around the eye is narrow. If the connect is made, I would assume the CDO would expand and our eye would become larger.

x-y-no · #25 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:49 am

MWatkins wrote:...the point (yours i think) that the amorphous blob out in front is turning into a well-developed band is also a sign.

Yeah ... that's what I was trying to say in my own incoherent way. :-)

btsgmdad · #26 Postby **btsgmdad** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:50 am

So you mean to say its expanding?

#27 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:50 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:The amorphous blob still isn't visibly connected to the CDO. Perhaps that is why the convection around the eye is narrow. If the connect is made, I would assume the CDO would expand and our eye would become larger.

Yep...it's detached right now...I would guess that the chances are...what 2 in 3 that this will start to attach in the next 6 hours?

MW

#28 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:56 am

Hey...the 12Z NOGAPS has shifted slightly south and wants to take Ivan through the FL Straights or right over northern Cuba...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... oplant.gif

MW

x-y-no · #29 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:06 pm

MWatkins wrote:Hey...the 12Z NOGAPS has shifted slightly south and wants to take Ivan through the FL Straights or right over northern Cuba...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... oplant.gif

MW

Takes it right up the spine of Cuba. Well that would weaken him pretty quich anyway.

#30 Postby **Dave C** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:08 pm

The earlier post about wrestling a crocodile with their bare hands.....Steve Irwin of the Crocodile hunter comes to mind. Ever seen him Derek?LOL

#31 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:11 pm

MWatkins wrote:Satellite imagery from early this afternoon (or I guess late this morning) indicates that the eye of Ivan is becoming better defined and the CDO more circular.

This suggests that Ivan is starting to strengthen as it moves rapidly westward...I wonder exactly how stong this will be when recon gets out there later.

MW

STOP THAT.

#32 Postby **NateFLA** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 12:14 pm

This is such a no-win situation.

FL is going to be very waterlogged when Ivan comes, so more downed trees...

And when is it expected to come?

Last thing anyone wants is a Sept 11th monster hurricane

Ivan Intensifying Again

Crocodile wrestling

Re: Ivan Intensifying Again

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