Still a cat 2 at 8 PM,racing west at 24 mph

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cycloneye
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Still a cat 2 at 8 PM,racing west at 24 mph

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:58 pm

TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST MON SEP 06 2004

...IVAN MOVES QUICKLY WESTARD...REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...
400 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH ...39 KM/HR...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO WARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER SOME OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 56.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HENNON
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:59 pm

wow....24 mph.... :eek:
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:01 pm

Yes it is racing more rapidly westward and that is great news for those who live in the islands because they will see the effects go by rapidly.
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#4 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:01 pm

yea, so that makes the winds on the north side of the storm 129 mph. :D
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#5 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:05 pm

No, it doesn't. Common fallacy.
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:06 pm

skysummit wrote:yea, so that makes the winds on the north side of the storm 129 mph. :D


No ... the FWD movement is already factored into the MAX sustained winds ... which on the southern side would be in the 80-85 mph range ...

SF
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#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:06 pm

Trust me,

its a 3 again based upon the latest recon data, at least 110 m.p.h. There is no way this is still 105
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:07 pm

What is the last vortex message?
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:08 pm

abajan and Renata in Barbados I think that you will not see the very bad weather as it looks the eye will pass more south of you than earlier thoughted so great news.
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#10 Postby HUC » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:08 pm

I think that the NHC is including the translation speed of the cyclone in their max sustained wind speed.I am right or wrong????Some specialist can replied,because i have reed this question in the board.
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#11 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:09 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Trust me,

its a 3 again based upon the latest recon data, at least 110 m.p.h. There is no way this is still 105


I thought so. Probably won't upgrade til 11... :roll:
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#12 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:10 pm

Houstoner wrote:What is the last vortex message?


URNT12 KNHC 062314
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/2314Z
B. 11 DEG 12 MIN N
56 DEG 02 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2795 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NA NM
F. 157 DEG 79 KT
G. 065 DEG 005 NM
H. 963 MB
I. 16 C/ 3078 M
J. 19 C/ 3087 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C6
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF977 0109A IVAN OB 25
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NW QUAD 1917Z.
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#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:24 pm

the vortex before showed 106KT at 700mb. Using a 90 percent reduction, you get 95.4KT. I dont know what science Lawrence is using to keep this at 90KT
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#14 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:29 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the vortex before showed 106KT at 700mb. Using a 90 percent reduction, you get 95.4KT. I dont know what science Lawrence is using to keep this at 90KT


I forgot about the 106 kt one. The pressure is down another mb since then...
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#15 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:04 pm

well the latest is 94kt so i think the advisory is reasonable......regardless its good we dont have a very strong storm now and one that is not forecast to strengthen much at all in the next 3 days from the ships model.....good news for the islands
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#16 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:09 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:well the latest is 94kt so i think the advisory is reasonable......regardless its good we dont have a very strong storm now and one that is not forecast to strengthen much at all in the next 3 days from the ships model.....good news for the islands


Actually...

URNT12 KNHC 062058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/2058Z
B. 11 DEG 20 MIN N
55 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2790 M
D. 80 KT
E. 045 DEG 9 NM
F. 140 DEG 106 KT
G. 045 DEG 006 NM
H. 964 MB
I. 10 C/ 3088 M
J. 17 C/ 3075 M
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 0109A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 106 KT NE QUAD 2056Z

That is the latest wind reading.
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#17 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:10 pm

doesnt 2314 come after 2058?

:wink:
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#18 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:13 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:doesnt 2314 come after 2058?

:wink:


The 94 kt was measured at 1917z. :P
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#19 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:15 pm

hmmmm.....why did they do that? why list 1917 if they had a 2056?


typo?

the sats are looking better as we speak anyway........
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Derek Ortt

#20 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:16 pm

the 94KT was in a different quadrant than was the 106KT
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