Major Flood event possible in association with Frances ...

[Stormsfury]

Southern GA into the Appalachians ... this is NOT good ...

[NorthGaWeather]

GA can take most of that rain so I'm not as worried.

[greeng13]

yeah...i agree northga...more worried about s.c. and va.

[USAwx1]

Yep...and there will continue to be a significant severe weather threat over the next 24-36 hrs in the SE and eventually spreading into the Mid Atlantic w/ good directional shear in the vicinity of the h850 and h500 low centers

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036s.gif

[Brent]

The center is about 125 miles SSE of me right now and radar is showing a MASSIVE rain shield of moderate to heavy rain. It's just starting right now and it looks like it will rain all night... Expecting 3-4". I'm right on the AL/GA stateline and the center is going to pass very close to me sometime tomorrow(maybe a little west or east).

[NorthGaWeather]

SPC seems to think the SVR threat is non existent over GA except for a few SE counties.

[Stephanie]

All I can say is what else is new???

I think that we can handle the 2 inches of rain in my area, but I really feel for those people in the Appalachians!

[Stormsfury]

SPC extended the Tornado watch (reissued) the tornado watch until 5 am in the morning ... right now, the weather is very quiet ... but shear parameters are quite conducive for discrete supercells/quick and rapid spin-ups ... already have seen several today in SC ... and this looks to continue throughout the next 36 hours ...

SF

[greeng13]

my ditches are full right now....i installed a pump underneath my friend's crawlspace today...s.c. does not need any more rain but i think it is on the way

[USAwx1]

SPC extended the Tornado watch (reissued) the tornado watch until 5 am in the morning ... right now, the weather is very quiet ... but shear parameters are quite conducive for discrete supercells/quick and rapid spin-ups ... already have seen several today in SC ... and this looks to continue throughout the next 36 hours ...

SF

yes, shear paramaters are very favorable for quick spin-up tornadoes. And given faster storm motion, persons in the path of a potential tornado will have little time to react.

the ETA-BUFKIT sounding at Valdosta, GA revealed a 171 DEG/55 KT low level jet at 881mb at 0z (this is from the 12z run). 0-6 KM shear was near 50 m/s and 3 km helicity was over 300 m2/s2. Thus any storms will have the potential to readily rotate.

[Hugo_Charlotte]

Bugger......Not liking the potential for Charlotte and West to the Apps..it appears that we may be in a favorable postion for upslope and orographic lift. Best case scenario I guess is a speedy Frances?

[Stormsfury]

SPC extended the Tornado watch (reissued) the tornado watch until 5 am in the morning ... right now, the weather is very quiet ... but shear parameters are quite conducive for discrete supercells/quick and rapid spin-ups ... already have seen several today in SC ... and this looks to continue throughout the next 36 hours ...

SF

yes, shear paramaters are very favorable for quick spin-up tornadoes. And given faster storm motion, persons in the path of a potential tornado will have little time to react.

the ETA-BUFKIT sounding at Valdosta, GA revealed a 171 DEG/55 KT low level jet at 881mb at 0z (this is from the 12z run). 0-6 KM shear was near 50 m/s and 3 km helicity was over 300 m2/s2. Thus any storms will have the potential to readily rotate.

In the SE, we generally don't have much lead time to begin with due to the hit and miss nature of the quick spin-ups already ... and unfortunately, sometimes by the time a warning is issued (IF the supercellular structure is very discreet), the tornado could already be gone by the time a warning is fired off ... but it's NOT the fault of the NWS ... it's the nature of the beast here, especially along the coast ...

SF

[Brent]

Speaking of Frances... she's moving faster than the NHC track right now.

[7635]

looks like time to get out my boat . word here is 4 to 6 + but were better off than fla is. i am more worried about wind than rain.ashame it is not snow.our best to people in fla.

[Bane]

we had close to 2 inches here today. Add that to what we got from Gaston, Charley, etc. and we're water-logged.

[tomboudreau]

I know we cant take anymore rain over here in Western PA. This has been such a wet summer hear and we have had many eposides of flooding already. I'll have to try to find the rain gauge to get it setup before this takes place so I can see how much rain we actually get. It still packed away from the first move of the summer and our first flood of the summer. I just want no more rain! We have had 38.21" this year alone and normally we have had 27.06" for a surplus of 11.15 inches! We get the 6 to 8 inches for this, we will be pushing some 18 inches above normal!

[Brent]

POURING rain here from Frances right now. Just had a strong gust too. Easily over 40 mph.

[tronbunny]

Remember we were looking at 10-20" in fla on the same models.
Didn't quite match.

That's some tidbit of hope.
I'm hoping my skepticism of that model is right.

[Wainfleeter]

We are going to get the remnants of Frances here too. Looks like maybe 4-6 inches of rain. Still, better off than many of you that are already flooded.

Totally fascinating how this began off the coast of Africa and is ending up in Southern portions of Ontario. (Niagara region) I am on the shores of Lake Erie.

[jdray]

beware of the rainfalls with this storm. we are still under heavy rains.

rivers are still waiting to crest here at well above flood levels.

I really feel sorry for some of the mountain areas in its path.