11pm-FINAL ADVISORY FOR FRANCES

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 53

Statement as of 03:00Z on September 07, 2004

at 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning is dicontinued for
the Gulf Coast of Florida from the Suwanee river to St. Marks.
Coastal interests should exercise caution until winds and seas
subside.

Tropical depression center located near 31.3n 84.6w at 07/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 985 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
12 ft seas.. 0ne 175se 175sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 31.3n 84.6w at 07/0300z
at 07/0000z center was located near 31.1n 84.5w

forecast valid 07/1200z 32.3n 84.9w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 33.7n 85.3w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 35.0n 85.0w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 09/0000z 37.0n 84.0w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 10/0000z 41.5n 79.5w...extratropical
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 11/0000z...merged with front

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 31.3n 84.6w

this is the last forecast/advisory issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system

forecaster Lawrence

[btsgmdad]

Goodbye and good riddance!

[canegrl04]

Don't let the screen door hit your butt on the way out

[Brent]

Over me between 11am and 1pm tomorrow.

FINAL ADVISORY! She will ride the AL/GA border

Tropical Depression Frances Discussion Number 53

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 06, 2004

radar...surface and satellite data place the center over
southwestern Georgia and moving 340/10. The track guidance models
show a slow...less than 10 kt...motion toward the north to
north-northeast for 48 hours followed by some acceleration toward
the north-northeast. This track is around the western periphery of
a mid level ridge that is being eroded to the north of Frances. By
72 hours...Frances should be extratropical as it merges with the
westerlies.

Maximum surface winds have decreased to about 30 kt and Frances is
downgraded to a tropical depression. The only higher values in the
past few hours were St Augustine C-man at 01z with 33 kt at 16.5 M
elevation and from a ship off the Georgia coast at 00z with 35 kt.
There is still a substantial banding feature from north through
east through south of the center and the central pressure is rising
very slowly...now estimated at 985 mb. It is likely that winds
will gust to tropical storm force for several more hours over a
large area as the banding feature rotates around the depression.

The next public advisory will be issued by the Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center.

Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 07/0300z 31.3n 84.6w 30 kt...inland
12hr VT 07/1200z 32.3n 84.9w 30 kt...inland near Columbus, Georgia
24hr VT 08/0000z 33.7n 85.3w 25 kt...inland near Heflin, Alabama
36hr VT 08/1200z 35.0n 85.0w 25 kt...inland east of Chattanooga, Tennessee
48hr VT 09/0000z 37.0n 84.0w 25 kt...inland somewhere, LOL
72hr VT 10/0000z 41.5n 79.5w 25 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 11/0000z...merged with front

[HURAKAN]

Good Bye! Was dramatic and breath taking tracking you, Frances. I think Frances is the only cyclone that the WMO has 2 reasons to retire.

[Sean in New Orleans]

See ya later, Frances!

[Brent]

See ya later, Frances!

Actually you won't. Her name won't be on the list in 2010.

[Matthew5]

985 millibars for a tropical depression??? Is that some kind of record?

[SouthernWx]

Over me between 11am and 1pm tomorrow.

FINAL ADVISORY! She will ride the AL/GA border

Yep...and will pass only 25-30 miles to my west, so I'm expecting several inches of rain and wind gusts to 40 mph or more.

I've already clocked a 34 mph gust today, and wind is currently from the ESE at 17 mph...and a peak gust 32 mph within the last few minutes.

[Sanibel]

We are still 1009 here!

[Wnghs2007]

Right now at Hartsfield International Airport they have sustained winds of 30 mph. I recorded a gust to 41 earlier tonight. It said 54 mph but I revised that down. And cut off a good bit. Highest Sustained I have seen has been 28 Mph

[Brent]

Over me between 11am and 1pm tomorrow.

FINAL ADVISORY! She will ride the AL/GA border

Yep...and will pass only 25-30 miles to my west, so I'm expecting several inches of rain and wind gusts to 40 mph or more.

I've already clocked a 34 mph gust today, and wind is currently from the ESE at 17 mph...and a peak gust 32 mph within the last few minutes.

I'm going to end up with several inches before morning if this keeps up. Been pouring rain on and off(and moderate rain the other times) for 2 hours now. Yellows and oranges on radar coming in from the east.

[LAwxrgal]

Adios, Frances!

[ncsandman]

GoodBye!!!
When this storm was first named Frances, my dad said it would be a doosy, because thats my Moms name!! Thought that was funny at the time!!

[caneseddy]

Goodbye Frances, we hardly knew ye

My house lost most of my shingles, which Andrew was never able to do