WOAH!!! FLOYDBUSTERS VICTORY!!!!

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Anonymous

WOAH!!! FLOYDBUSTERS VICTORY!!!!

#1 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:42 pm

Image

Image

I nailed that track 12 hrs before the NHC forecasted it. :lol: I am good. I deserve some credit.[/i]
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Roxy
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#2 Postby Roxy » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:43 pm

excellent!
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Ixolib
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Re: WOAH!!! FLOYDBUSTERS VICTORY!!!!

#3 Postby Ixolib » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:44 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Image

Image

I nailed that track 12 hrs before the NHC forecasted it. :lol: I am good. I deserve some credit.[/i]


Should be SUPER Floydbuster!! Great Job...
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canegrl04
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#4 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:46 pm

Notice he has slowed down a tad.From 24 mph,to 20mph. If the model trend holds,looks like GOM action.Ivan should be able to bomb in there
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#5 Postby MBryant » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:46 pm

I still think you'll both need to adjust the track further South in future runs.
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Re: WOAH!!! FLOYDBUSTERS VICTORY!!!!

#6 Postby clueless newbie » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:49 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:I nailed that track 12 hrs before the NHC forecasted it. :lol: I am good. I deserve some credit.


Ooo yeah! :wink:
Just remember that the arbiter is not the NHC but the Mother Nature. :lol:
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:49 pm

CONGRATULATIONS!!!!! THIS IS ONCE IN A LIFETIME!!!!! :)
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bahamaswx
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#8 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:51 pm

I'd rather a victory because that's where it actually ends up going... not because the NHC agrees. Won't mean much if future tracks vary considerably.
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Anonymous

#9 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:55 pm

Yes, but it almost (SEEMS WEIRD) but it seems like my track came before the NHC. I had a gut feeling. And the NHC changed to what I thought 12 hrs ago.
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#10 Postby tronbunny » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:56 pm

Floydbuster has won the "I-saw-the-same-thing-NHC-did-but had-the-guts-to-put-it-out-there-first" raffle.

Cool, can you do an impression of Stewart's discussion too?

now let's see what good ol' Mom Nature thinks.
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Anonymous

#11 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:57 pm

Floydbuster waits for a comment by Derek Orrt. Will it be a congrats... or a "PURE LUCK" comment???
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bahamaswx
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#12 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:00 pm

Well you basically just said it was pure luck by admitting to a "gut feeling". Not good =/
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Anonymous

#13 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:03 pm

No, my gut feeling was the pattern was to have that ridge... farther south. So, it was right. I saw it coming 12 hrs before the NHC.
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Derek Ortt

#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:14 pm

Someone really needs self esteem

Let me clarify, to immediately public assume that I am going to criticize for making a good forecast (although an easy one, but still good none the less) does reek of an agenda. At least it does to me
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#15 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:14 pm

One minor word of caution...NHC agreement does not a verified forecast make. We'll know how good this...and the NHC forecast is in about 108 to 120 hours. Until then...it's good forecast agreement.

My major concern continues to be how much ridging is left over after Frances makes her exit...remember...smaller storms like this are very succeptable to changes in the main flow. Selfishly...would love to see this crash into Venezulea or dissipate all together...and any track but here (FL) is good.

Let's see what happens when the NOAA jet data hits the models in another hour or two.

However...FB...so far so good. Looks like you are right on track.

MW
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#16 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:22 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Notice he has slowed down a tad.From 24 mph,to 20mph. If the model trend holds,looks like GOM action.Ivan should be able to bomb in there


Actually...you have landed on a good point there. There has been a bit of a slowdown in the track tonight...albeight slight. We should watch very carefully for any additional slowdowns in the next 24 to 48 hours...the offical forecast basically calls for a gradual slowdown from 18 knots to 15 knots of forward motion...which is a bit slower than the 5pm package.

Anything more than that is going to be a problem for Cuba.

Of course...we should see some of this translate into the model runs that will start coming out soon.

MW
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