Place your bets!!!

[cape_escape]

cuba, criss cross florida, up the coast, outer banks, hello cape cod. can we say hurricane donna

That just gave me chills!!!!!

[THead]

thru jamaica as a cat 3, thru western cuba, thru the middle keys, entering florida mainland at the extreme southern point as a cat 2, and travelling north and exiting florida somewhere around cape canaveral, re-intensifying into a cat 3, barely missing the outer banks of n. car and out to sea.

[JQ Public]

Gulfport, Mississippi

[CajunMama]

Looks like it may be taking a more southerly jaunt, but I'll go with Beaumont, TX to New Orleans...somewhere in the middle....OK, Lafayette, LA. $5 chip's on the table.

Chili Pepper, I sure hope you aren't a lucky gambler!

[TropicalJen]

I say andrew with a little charly and some francis thrown in before playing earl. Meaning, Intensity for Bahamas as strong 3, coming in the straights appearing to be taking path of charley up the coast, "wobbling" like frances out in the gulf, not landfalln till he gets to mexico as a cat 2 storm, meandering and threating around tampa bay again, but not making it north enough to hit. FL will go to Mexico. goooo west ivan, no offense if I don't put out the welcom mat for you..

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Ill just say its going to hit Los Angeles, California

[Innotech]

Looks like it may be taking a more southerly jaunt, but I'll go with Beaumont, TX to New Orleans...somewhere in the middle....OK, Lafayette, LA. $5 chip's on the table.

Chili Pepper, I sure hope you aren't a lucky gambler!

Lili 2

at this point its a fun guessing game of course, but at least my father doesnt have that antenna on his 50 foot high tower anymore. I can remember hgleping him take that huge sucker down ONE DAY before Lili struck. At the itme I was monitoring the storm, it was headed straight for the Vermillion bay as a Cat 4. That was interesting....

[AussieMark]

though the windwards.

brush Hispaniola and Jamaica.

through Cuba as a 4.

landfall possibly as a strong 3 or a moderate 4 around Mississippi/Alabama. (a strike to the Florida Panhandle can't be ruled out).

[flashflood1998]

ok, i've never participated in the guess before, but i'm going with a turn N-NW and a low cat 3 ripping right up the hispaniola split, unfortunately delivering way too much rain and winds to the people of haiti and the d.r. by late thursday.

crossing the cordilleras will beat ivan down to a cat 2 and send him thru the eastern bahamas, creeping up the u.s. east coast, eventually making a landfall around jacksonville, n.c. by the end of the weekend.

florida getting hit again would just not be right. nobody deserves to get it, but these folks need a break.

[Innotech]

right into the side of Punta gorda, Belize, Cat 4.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

cuba, criss cross florida, up the coast, outer banks, hello cape cod. can we say hurricane donna

That just gave me chills!!!!!

I tell no lies. and i'll be bumping this in about 4 days. Sorry florida

[Air Force Met]

Western coast of Florida is my guess. Right now I don't see how it makes it past 90W...not saying it can't...but unless the upper level pattern changes a lot more than forecast...this is an eastern GOM storm...somewhere b/w 82 and 87W.

[GalvestonDuck]

Across Mexico as a rainmaker, down through the South Pacific, and into Australia as a mere TS. G'day, Mates!



Of course, I know better.

Tend to agree with AFM and others above who says eastern GOM -- From mid-MS (Sorry, Linda) to the Panhandle of FL.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

agreed with AFMet.

stagnant trough lurking NE/SW, subtropical ridge positioned further east. and pinwheel s/w diving from central canada around large >980mb vortex. we have #3, florida gulf coast. Hopefully Ivan is a shadow of his former self by that point with land interaction and maybe some shear. beyond there, amazingly, it gets even more interesting in the atlantic...stay tuned

[Cape Verde]

Ivan skirts past Cuba and the Yucatan and into the Gulf. She scares everyone for a couple of days, and then comes ashore in Mexico, 75 miles south of Brownsville.

[Canelaw99]

Count me in as another S. FL person - I think it'll hit somewhere in the Keys or southern FL after passing over Cuba. Hopefully, though, Cuba will decrease down to a Cat. 1....

[jdt]

I am not surprised the official forecast track from NHC has shifted slowly west over the past day or so. Ivan as been very very slow to gain latitude thus further west seems logical but to what point. I strongly agree with Air Force Met but still am a bit concerned about the lack of latitude gained thus far. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening over the next 3-5 days. And though strengthening has been indicated this AM by recon reports I would not be surprised if Ivan’s close proximity to SA keeps him in check in the near term. But it most also be noted that with Ivan’s overall small size the circulation may not be significantly affected by nearby SA. Either way a more noticeable WNW track pulling away from SA should materialize shortly and lessen any land interaction effects. After this steady strengthening is likely and major hurricane status should remain thru the next 5 days. Beyond 5 days intensity will be effected by exact track and possible landfall / land interactions with any of the following Islands, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba. ATT this time I favor a track similar to NHC 5AM (9-7-04) but just a bit south of it. Possibley traking over Jamaica on a WNW heading as strong CAT 3 or greater hurricane. From here a WNW to gradually NW track over west central Cuba still as a CAT 3 or greater hurricane. Then Ivan tracks NW to NNW thru the extreme western FL Key’s as a strong CAT 2 or greater hurricane. A Charlie type scenario unfolds at this point as Ivan threatens the west coast of FL from a low angle setting up another potentially difficult forecast as only minor changes in track would push the landfall location 100 to 200 miles north or south. It is possible Ivan may swing far enough west to affect the FL panhandle but the west coast looks like the greatest threat ATT. At the time of landfall on the FL mainland Ivan will more then likely be a major hurricane of moderate CAT 3 or greater intensity. This part of the forecast is over 5 days out thus subject to refinement if not significant change as the future synoptic pattern unfolds. So to refresh my US mainland landfall first guess ATT west coast of FL has a solid CAT 3 but anyone from the the Alabama gulf Coast to SE Florida need to closely monitor Ivan's movements.

JDT

Just a note: IMO NHC as done a great job with both Charlie and Frances all things considered and I suspect they will continue this with Ivan.

[alicia-w]

I'm going to make a WILD guess (none of us are doing that here )

and say anywhere between Mobile and Panama City as a Cat3

[Johnny]

The cone area has been pushed a little more southward so I'm thinking this one might actually get in the Gulf. Word has it that there might be another nice cold front slide down at the end of this week so I think the western gulf states will be spared. I'll go with New Orleans to Fort Walton Beach, Florida.

[TideFreak]

Hmm, Let me see . . . Mobile here . .. Thats not good at all