00Z GFS...Some Changes

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MWatkins
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00Z GFS...Some Changes

#1 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:06 pm

So far through 66 hours...and if someone could confirm that the synoptic drops happened tonight that would be great...the 0Z GFS is slower and a bit north with Ivan at 66 hour or so...compare:

New Image:
Image

with the far-left 18Z GFS at the same verify time (in the 500mb layer):

Old Image:
Image

Note that the 00Z GFS actually initializes Ivan in a deeper layer and does not treat him as a weaker system. So far we are through 66 hours and the ultimate solution could be the same...but there will undoubtedly be a shift to the right in the GFDL and subsequent NHC suite runs.

Also...will be interesting to see how the model resolves the mean steering ridge late in the period...will be waiting for that.

MW
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Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:12 pm

GFS had some major problems assimilating the dropsondes during Frances. It didnt help stop the flip-flopping at all (may have even made it worse)
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#3 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:14 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:GFS had some major problems assimilating the dropsondes during Frances. It didnt help stop the flip-flopping at all (may have even made it worse)


Agreed...will wait for the other globals before getting to worried...at least right now the GFS is not turning Ivan straight into a 500MB ridge... :wink:

MW
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#4 Postby TS Zack » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:16 pm

Yes, or producing a trough axis from Florida to the Central Plains.
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:24 pm

Very slow crawl past Jamaica ...

96:
Image

120:
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#6 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:25 pm

Through 126 hours...perhaps some sort of false GFS hope that this will get out without a US landfall...although I feel for our friends in the Bahamas...

Image

MW
Last edited by MWatkins on Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby SwampDawg » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:26 pm

I'm sure that there will be plenty more changes before it's over with.
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#8 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:27 pm

Yeah, looks like it wants to send it NE through the Bahamas.
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#9 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:28 pm

Is it being.... like... serious?
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#10 Postby tronbunny » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:29 pm

GFS on Crack?
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#11 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:31 pm

Again...this just one extended run of a model that did not handle Frances all that well for a stretch...but once you get out to 138 hours there is come concern that this dang thing may at least affect the keys...the evoultion of the 500MB layer is going to have a lot to say about this system:

Still sounds like a close David-like call to me:

Image

MW
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#12 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:32 pm

tronbunny wrote:GFS on Crack?


Hope so. It has shown a propensity for that habit before. Let's see what the other models have to say before we check the GFS into rehab.

MW
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#13 Postby CaluWxBill » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:33 pm

tronbunny wrote:GFS on Crack?


Not exactly, If the weakness in the steering currents are as the GFS is progging, then it will definitely slow down. Just remember any extended jog to the north, could help pull it through the weakness if a fairly substantial trough moves through. However this is the GFS. I'd have to see 500mb ECMWF, UKMET, and GGEM
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#14 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:34 pm

MWatkins wrote:Again...this just one extended run of a model that did not handle Frances all that well for a stretch...but once you get out to 138 hours there is come concern that this dang thing may at least affect the keys...the evoultion of the 500MB layer is going to have a lot to say about this system:

Still sounds like a close David-like call to me:


MW


Ooohhh that's weird ...

What the heck turns the storm left again with the ridge backed off all the way to 60W?

I just don't get that one ...

Every time I think I understand what this model is up to ... LOL!!! :-)
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#15 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:35 pm

That only proves that this model is out of its mind.
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#16 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:37 pm

x-y-no wrote:
MWatkins wrote:Again...this just one extended run of a model that did not handle Frances all that well for a stretch...but once you get out to 138 hours there is come concern that this dang thing may at least affect the keys...the evoultion of the 500MB layer is going to have a lot to say about this system:

Still sounds like a close David-like call to me:


MW


Ooohhh that's weird ...

What the heck turns the storm left again with the ridge backed off all the way to 60W?

I just don't get that one ...

Every time I think I understand what this model is up to ... LOL!!! :-)


Actually it draws the system slowly northward through 168 hours in a very weak steering environment...looking at the extended this is passing very close to SFL on it's way out to the NNE:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_162s.gif

Come on UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL and EURO. The CMC is kind of like the Andy Richter of the global models...a nice sidekick but not necessary imho.

MW
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#17 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:40 pm

MWatkins wrote:
Actually it draws the system slowly northward through 168 hours in a very weak steering environment...looking at the extended this is passing very close to SFL on it's way out to the NNE:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_162s.gif

Come on UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL and EURO. The CMC is kind of like the Andy Richter of the global models...a nice sidekick but not necessary imho.

MW


Yeah, OK. Just looked through the upper levels and I think I get what it's doing.

Can't say I buy this solution, though. :-)
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#18 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:42 pm

Im only assuming its having a front pick up Ivan.
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#19 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:42 pm

x-y-no wrote:
MWatkins wrote:
Actually it draws the system slowly northward through 168 hours in a very weak steering environment...looking at the extended this is passing very close to SFL on it's way out to the NNE:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_162s.gif

Come on UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL and EURO. The CMC is kind of like the Andy Richter of the global models...a nice sidekick but not necessary imho.

MW



Yeah, OK. Just looked through the upper levels and I think I get what it's doing.

Can't say I buy this solution, though. :-)


Hence the call-out to the other globals...I can assure the GFDL and the other NHC models will shift back to the right some...but it's going to be a long 1 hour and 20 min wait to see what the other 2 of the big 3 have to say.

MW
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#20 Postby caneseddy » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:44 pm

If Avila is doing the discussion, u can bet he's going to mention the GFS as the "reliable model" and shift the track over to where the GFS says Ivan will go too, especially if the GFDL does it too since he loves those two models :P
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