New Eye?

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:03 pm

The last one may have been an illusion, this one seems more legit to me. I do have bad eyes though your opinions?

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:06 pm

Looks like it to me. It's not on the edge of the convection so I defintely think that's it. It's much larger though.

calidoug · #3 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:36 pm

Agreed. That's an eye.. now we're in the sat eclipse...

#4 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:45 pm

If that's the eye...then Ivan has slowed a little more since the TPC advisory.

MW

mobilebay · #5 Postby **mobilebay** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:50 pm

We will find out shortly because Recon is investigating now.

#6 Postby **Fego** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:53 pm

MW... What are the implications of a slow motion?

#7 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:58 pm

Fego wrote:MW... What are the implications of a slow motion?

The main thing is that it gives an indication that the current line of thinking may be a little fast in terms of forward motion. Based on the current motion and from what we've seen from the models...Puerto Rico should be OK...but this may suggest that a Yucatan solution is less-likely to happen.

This gives steering time to change in front of the system...before commenting further...still eagerly awaiting the other models.

MW

#8 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:09 am

Just looked at some meteosat imagery through 0430Z...Ivan looks to have really slowed down...recon will be in shortly to check.

MW

mobilebay · #9 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:16 am

If you are correct and it has slowed, this could make Ivan's passage through the Antilles alot more painful.

#10 Postby **Fego** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:18 am

I'll be here an hour or more... it's very interesting this new development.

ncsandman · #11 Postby **ncsandman** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:24 am

Any pictures, Link?

Sanibel · #12 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:32 am

The clear slot is a lower piece of the eye flashing in and out of the clear eyewall opening through the CDO. It is not a dry air slot or such, it is the eye...

I can't figure if it is wildly spinning in trochoid wobbles or just how it appears from tricks of the convection. It does appear to be straight due west. It does appear to be powerful. There's even a chance that the eye is fairly large and that is just a corner.

If it pulls up it will put Mustique under higher threat. If it tracks straight west the lower eyewall will scrape Tobago and the upper will slam Grenada.

Need some sleep. Plenty to watch tomorrow...

#13 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:02 am

00Z...11.3 N... 56.3 W
03Z...11.2 N... 57.2 W
06Z...11.3 N... 57.8 W

A change of .9 degrees long from 00 to 03
A chance of .6 degrees long from 03 to 06

There is a little slowing going on. Also...Ivan is probably stronger.

Good night...

MW

southerngale · #14 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:05 am

ncsandman · #15 Postby **ncsandman** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:08 am

Thanks Southerngale,thats definitely an eye!!

dennis1x1 · #16 Postby **dennis1x1** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:11 am

newer pic:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-563W.jpg

still having some trouble getting going....still in reorg stage but maintaining intensity

ncsandman · #17 Postby **ncsandman** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:18 am

Thanks Dennis

New Eye?

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