00Z GFS...Some Changes

x-y-no · #21 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:44 pm

Yeah, well ... I think I'm going to sleep and I'll look at them in the morning. :-)

TS Zack · #22 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:45 pm

The trough over the Atlantic expected to pick Ivan up as the GFS suggest. Looks very similar to the trough first expected to take Frances out to sea. HUMMMMM..... :roll:

mobilebay · #23 Postby **mobilebay** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:47 pm

It looks like its driving it back into a ridge at the end again Mike. Also that Ridge will be Amplifying because here comes that trough starting down the CONUS at about 168 hours. That's the trough that the CMC has coming down at 144 hours. This trough could have huge implications if Ivan goes to the GOM.

#24 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:36 am

Yep...the 00Z GFDL is well to the right of the 18Z guidance...an unsettling 24/80 in 126 hours:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGQLM.0409070535

NOGAPS was slow to get kicked off tonight so still waiting for that.

MW

#25 Postby **MSRobi911** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:44 am

Geeze Mike, I hate numbers....can you say it in words?

:)

mobilebay · #26 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:44 am

The Ukmet keeps it on the southern track though 23N and 85W. I just dont see that weak trough digging this out of this low lattitude. I think the GFS will be back south on Tuesday.IMO

dennis1x1 · #27 Postby **dennis1x1** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:51 am

while 24/80 itself is unsettling...its path to get there covers alot of land....and little time to recover....

#28 Postby **ericinmia** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:56 am

damn that puts it awfully damn close to miami.... :eek:

Good thing were all still ready... lol
miami is about 25 and 80 with change

This is starting to make me think that the euro is becoming one of the most consistant models we have.
-Eric

mobilebay · #29 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:04 am

Note to Avila. The GFDL has been doing poorly so for. First it took frances fishing (twice), then went totaly left, and had it headed for Mobile for two days. It is interesting to note we did get a gentle breeze today in Mobile, as Frances tracked about 300 miles to our east. :lol:

AL Chili Pepper · #30 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:06 am

ericinmia wrote:damn that puts it awfully damn close to miami....
Good thing were all still ready... lol
miami is about 25 and 80 with change

This is starting to make me think that the euro is becoming one of the most consistant models we have.
-Eric

The ECMWF did a darn good job with Frances. From Aug 30 onward - with the exception of one run - it had Frances crossing the Bahamas, central FL, into the NE GOM.

#31 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:07 am

ericinmia wrote:damn that puts it awfully damn close to miami....
Good thing were all still ready... lol
miami is about 25 and 80 with change

This is starting to make me think that the euro is becoming one of the most consistant models we have.
-Eric

You think that's unsettling...check out the 5 day NOGAPS from 00Z...note the complete removal of teh 500mb ridge to the north:

The upcoming TPC forecast has no choice to come back to the right some.

Looks like the UKMET is a left outlier.

MW

#32 Postby **ericinmia** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:18 am

It does appear at the moment that this will create an interesting weekend, and week ahead. The storm appears also to slow down before crossing cuba, and remain slow afterward... this would allow it to regenerate much more as the nogaps is showing.
-Eric

mobilebay · #33 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:21 am

The NOGAPS coming north shore adds more credence to the GFS/GFDL scenerio. I'm like Ortt, I have no confidence in ANY GFS based Model.

#34 Postby **ericinmia** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:28 am

mobilebay wrote:The NOGAPS coming north shore adds more credence to the GFS/GFDL scenerio. I'm like Ortt, I have no confidence in ANY GFS based Model.

I agree in general, however appreciate the gfs as a global for predicting weather. I use it more as assitance.
-Eric

SwampDawg · #35 Postby **SwampDawg** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 1:38 am

Mike, How reliable are the models when a storm is this far south?

00Z GFS...Some Changes

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