FXUS62 KMLB 070741
AFDMLB
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004
.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES CONTINUES TO PUSH NW INTO AL BUT EFFECTS
ARE STILL BEING FELT JUST NORTH OF THE FA IN THE FORM OF RAINBANDS
ROTATING N/NE. ALTHOUGH FRANCES IS WEAKENING...THERE REMAINS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...ESP NORTH HALF...WITH 30-35 KTS
FORECAST JUST ABOVE THE SFC-H85. SO EXPECT THESE HIGHER WINDS TO BE
MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC OCCASIONALLY IN GUSTS AS SFC HEATING COMMENCES
AND IN ANY STORMS. SUCH PEAK WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT
10A TO 1P WITH GUSTS DECREASING THEREAFTER. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALL COUNTIES TODAY.
HAVE INCLUDED WIND (SPEED) SHEAR THROUGH SUNRISE IN THE AVIATION
FORECASTS DUE TO TEMPORARY DECREASE OF SFC WINDS (10-12 KTS) THIS
MORNING BUT 35 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THESE LIGHTER SFC WINDS WILL
MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LESSEN THE THREAT FOR WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NIL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
UNIDIRECTIONAL S/SW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. SO TORNADO THREAT IS VERY
LOW. DO NOT EXPECT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH WOULD
LOCALLY INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS
PRODUCING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS OVER 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
A LITTLE MORE SFC HEATING THAN PREVIOUS DAYS PLUS CONVECTION MOVING
UP FROM THE S/SW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE 60% COVERAGE
ACROSS N/C SECTIONS...A LITTLE LOWER SOUTH.
WILL ALLOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER
AROUND TO S/SW...A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
SEAS A BIT NEAR SHORE.
WED-THU...AREA REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF FRANCES SLOWLY RETREATING WIND
FIELD. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WL REMAIN SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND A SLOWLY WEAKENING SSW WIND FLOW REGIME CAN BE EXPECTED
AS THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES LIFTS NORTH OF THE STATE. DUE TO W
COMPONENT FLOW ALOFT A FAVORABLE SET UP CONTINUES FOR THE EAST
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA TO RECEIVE A HIGHER LEVEL OF AFTERNOON
STORMS. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS EACH DAY. GFS NO'S LOOK REASONABLE
EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE BY THU DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT.
FRI-SUN...
RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVES BACK NORTH
OVER CENTRAL FL AS INDUCED TROFFINESS IN THE WAKE OF FRANCES
WEAKENS. A WEAK WIND FIELD WITH SUITABLE LATE SUMMER MOISTURE WL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOUNDARY INITIATED AFTERNOON STORMS FRI
AND SAT. WL CONTINUE WITH SEASONAL SCT COVERAGE TEMPERED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCREASED ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW
POSSIBLE BY SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF IVAN AND FALLING HEIGHTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA.
FORECAST DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO DEPEND ON FUTURE
MOVEMENTS OF HURRICANE IVAN...WITH OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS AND
LATEST NHC FORECASTS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE PENINSULA.
REFER TO THE STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS HURRICANE.&&
.MARINE...
***ATTN MARINERS...BUOY 41009 IS ADRIFT***
MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN SCA CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEGMENT. PREVAILING OFFSHORE COMPONENT
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE SOME FETCH PROTECTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE INTO MIDWEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EACH PERIOD
AND WAVE NOAA WATCH MODEL FOR THE AREA SHOWS SEAS SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET BY LATE WED. WILL ALLOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 88 75 89 75 / 60 30 50 30
MCO 88 75 90 75 / 60 30 50 30
MLB 89 75 88 75 / 60 30 60 30
VRB 90 75 88 75 / 60 30 60 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST
